000
AXNT20 KNHC 201023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system is centered 
about 300 nm NE of the N Bahamas. The low pressure will lift north
of the area tonight while deepening. This will bring brief gale
force winds N of 29N between 70W and 73W tonight. Meanwhile, rough
to very rough seas will propagate into the waters tonight into
Wed, with the 8 ft seas reaching as far south as the Turks and
Caicos by Wed night into Thu. Seas will peak around 12 to 13 ft
tonight into early Wed morning N 29N between 67W and 71W.  Please
read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 06N15W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N15W to 02S44W. Scattered showers are noted from
04S to 08N between 10W and 44W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb over the north-central Gulf of Mexico 
dominates the basin. Light to gentle winds have settled over the
basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft south of 26N and 3 ft or less north of 
26N. Seas to 6 ft continue within the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pres across the Gulf of Mexico will move 
eastward by midweek in response to a cold front approaching the 
western Gulf. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southerly 
return flow can be expected in the western Gulf on Wed night. 
These winds will diminish Thu as the cold front moves across the 
Gulf Thu night through Sat. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can 
be expected behind the front with moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, through eastern 
Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong northerly winds 
are noted offshore Honduras, Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica.  
Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted offshore Colombia and NW
Venezuela. Elsewhere, winds are moderate to fresh. Moderate seas 
prevail over the basin, with the highest seas of 8 ft near offshore
Colombia.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue pushing east 
through Wed before weakening by Thu in the eastern Caribbean. 
Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas off Nicaragua 
and Costa Rica will follow the front through Thu morning. This 
system has loosened the pressure gradient across the Caribbean 
waters. This has decreased the areal coverage of fresh to strong 
winds in the south central Caribbean and is expected to diminish 
by Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the Gale Warning 
W of Bermuda.

A cold front extends from the 1012 mb low pressure described in 
the special features section above. The cold front extends from 
29N72W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong westerly winds are behind
the front N of 25N. 8 to 10 ft seas are between Florida and the 
Bahamas, and north of 27N and west of 65W. 

Elsewhere, a subtropical ridge extending from near the Azores to 
the Greater Antilles supports fresh easterly winds across most 
of the Atlantic waters east of 55W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are north of 24N and east of 
30W, with seas up to 11 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will lift north of
31N tonight. Fresh to strong winds will persist today north and 
west of the low. As the low moves northward, it will deepen and 
bring brief gale force winds N of 29N between 70W and 74W tonight.
Meanwhile, rough to very rough seas will propagate into the 
waters N of 20N tonight and spread south and east through the end 
of the week. Seas of 12 ft and higher will reach 29N tonight into 
Wed morning. The cold front associated with the low pressure will 
extend from 31N65W to Hispaniola on Wed morning and from 31N59W to
the Anegada Passage Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough 
seas are expected along this front through the end of the week. 

$$
AReinhart