000 AXNT20 KNHC 190609 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Feb 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A surface trough reaches westward from a 1008 mb low pressure over the northwest Bahamas across southern Florida to the central Gulf. Scattered showers are occurring over the east-central Gulf and south of the Florida Big Bend area. Tight gradient between these features and a 1022 mb high pressure off Galveston, Texas is causing near-gale to gale-force NW to N winds north of the Yucatan Channel. Seas under these winds are ranging from 10 to 13 ft. As the low and related trough move farther eastward, both winds and seas will gradually subside after midnight. Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low pressure is over the northwest Bahamas. Latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer data reveal near-gale to gale-force N to NE winds north of this low from 28N to 29N between 77W and the central Florida east coast. Seas in this area range from 8 to 10 ft. As this low tracks east-northeastward tonight through Monday, expect these winds to shift eastward across the western Atlantic to between 72W and 76W by Mon morning. Seas will build higher to between 10 and 13 ft. This low is going to start weakening by Mon noon, which should allow both winds and seas to gradually subside Mon afternoon through evening. Marine interests in the above areas need to be cautious and plan accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains over the African Continent. An ITCZ extends southwestward from southwest of Liberia at 04N14W to beyond 00N26W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ from 02N to 06N between 13W and 19W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning. Besides the surface trough with related gales and weather mentioned in the Special Features section, a surface ridge extends south-southeastward from a 1022 mb high off Galveston, Texas to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present at the northwestern and north- central Gulf. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas dominate the west-central and northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong W to NW to N winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft in large northerly swell prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits. For the forecast, low pressure has moved east of the Gulf as the cold front also exited the basin. Gale-force N winds will prevail just north of the Yucatan Channel through the next few hours. Strong to near-gale force northerly winds along with very rough to high seas are elsewhere northwest of the front and low. The front and low pressure will move farther away from the Gulf tonight and Mon, allowing marine conditions to improve. However, rough seas will continue over portions of the southern Gulf into early Mon as high pressure settles over the region. Fresh southerly winds are expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as the high shifts eastward. These winds should diminish Thu as a frontal boundary approaches the northwestern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front curves southwestward from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 160 nm northwest of this feature. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident across the Yucatan Channel, and near the Island of Youth and coast of the Yucatan Peninsula/Belize. For the rest of the western basin, gentle to moderate NW to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the central basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail at the eastern basin. For the forecast, the cold front will push farther southeast into the basin over the next few days. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to northeast Nicaragua Mon evening, and from western Hispaniola to northeast Costa Rica by Tue evening. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front, spreading as far south as the Nicaragua coast. Fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean will continue through tonight then end by Mon morning as the gradient pattern between the high pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia being interrupted by the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about an ongoing Gale Warning. A frontal boundary curves southwestward from a 1010 mb low southwest of Bermuda near 30N71W to another 1008 mb low over the northwest Bahamas, then continues to beyond central Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 140 nm northwest of this boundary. A surface trough at the central Atlantic is triggering scattered showers north of 27N between 45W and 49W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found behind the frontal boundary, including the northwest Bahamas. A broad Atlantic Ridge stretching southwestward from a 1040 mb Azores High across 31N50W to near the southeast Bahamas. Gentle to moderate E to SE to S winds are evident up to 350 nm along either side of this features. In the area, 7 to 10 ft seas in large NW swell are found north of 20N between 30W and 50W, and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell are evident north of 20N between 50W and 75W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft in large NW swell are present north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic including the Cabo Verde Islands, fresh NNE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft in large northerly swell exist from 10N to 20N/21N between the Africa coast and Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, the 1008 mb low pressure currently over the northwest Bahamas will lift north of 31N by Tue night. The front will stretch from the low near 29N74W to eastern Cuba by Mon evening, and from the low near 31N69W to western Hispaniola Tue evening. A broad area of fresh to strong NW winds will be over the waters northeast of the Bahamas on Wed. These winds will shift to the northeastern part of the area Thu as fresh SW to W winds develop over the waters northeast of northern Florida in advance of the next frontal system. $$ Chan