000 AXNT20 KNHC 182243 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is noted over the far SE basin over the Straits of Florida. Gales have ended offshore Veracruz, but northerly gales are ongoing behind the front in the south-central Gulf of Mexico N of the Yucatan Channel. Seas in the region are 10 to 14 ft, and extend SW into the Bay of Campeche, where peak seas are around 15 ft. Gales in the south-central Gulf off the Yucatan Peninsula will diminish tonight as the cold front moves SE out of the Gulf of Mexico. Marine conditions will then begin to improve into Mon. Lingering strong NW winds will maintain 8-10 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche, S Gulf, and Yucatan Passage through Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low pressure over South Florida will move NE into the Atlantic this evening then exit area waters W of Bermuda Mon. Behind the low, strong N winds will increase to near gale force offshore Florida tonight and Mon, with frequent gusts to gale-force anticipated. Seas will build to 12 ft where these strong winds occur, especially in and near the Gulf Stream. As the low moves away from the area Mon night, conditions will improve. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 00N42W. No significant convection is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information about a GALE WARNING. A 1008 mb low pressure center has moved E and inland over the Florida Everglades. A cold front extends SW from this low across the Florida Straits and into Cuba. Outside of the gale warning area, strong N winds are ongoing over the SE Gulf behind this cold front. The significant convection along and ahead of the front has now moved E of the basin, but some scattered moderate convection prevails behind the front over the SE Gulf, coincident with the strong winds. Elsewhere, fresh N winds prevail in the NE and SW Gulf, with gentle to moderate N winds the the NW Gulf. Seas in the Bay of Campeche are 10 to 14 ft, with seas elsewhere in the southern Gulf at 8 to 12 ft. Over the northern Gulf, seas are decaying and range mainly from 4 to 7 ft, with lesser seas over the coastal shelf waters. For the forecast, the front will exit the basin tonight allowing for marine conditions to improve. Rough seas will continue over portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico into early Mon as high pressure settles over the region. Fresh southerly return flow is expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as the high shifts eastward. These winds diminish Thu as a frontal boundary approaches the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from near Havana, Cuba, to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh S winds ar present within about 90 nm E of the front, with fresh NW winds behind it. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and withing roughly 90 nm behind the front. The pressure gradient between high pressure NE of the basin in the Atlantic and lower pressure over South America is enhancing tradewinds to strong over the south central and SE Caribbean. Seas in this part of the basin are 8 to 10 ft. In the NE Caribbean and waters near the Greater Antilles, fresh E to SE winds prevail with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate winds and seas are present. For the forecast, winds and seas in the central basin will change little into early part of the week. The cold front will continue to move across the NW Caribbean through Mon, then the central Caribbean through the middle of the week while weakening. Fresh northwest to north winds will follow the front. Rough seas are expected in and near the Yucatan Channel tonight, thereafter, gradually subside. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an ATLANTIC GALE WARNING. A 1008 mb low pressure is noted over South Florida. A cold front is nearing the basin in the Florida Straits, with a squall line with strong winds and possibly severe thunderstorms ahead of the front crossing 80W offshore South Florida southward toward Cuba. A generally stationary front extends NE from the low pressure to another low pressure, of 1012 mb, centered near 30N73W. However, the portion of the front from the NW Bahamas westward is now retreating northward as a warm front. To the north of the boundary, scattered moderate convection is prevail, especially within about 120 nm of the warm front. N of the boundary, strong NE winds are occurring, with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, mainly moderate S winds are ahead of the front, N of the Antilles and W of 55W. For waters S of 20N and for waters E of 40W, moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing, with strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. A zone of gentle to moderate winds exists N of 20N between 40W and 50W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft dominate waters E of 50W, with 12 to 14 ft seas near and within 180 nm W of the Canary Islands, generated from early gales in that region. To the W, seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure currently over South Florida will track NE and across the NW Bahamas tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue near and to the northwest of the low and associated along with rough seas, with the potential for more widespread strong and near gale force winds near the track of the low. A broad area of fresh to strong northwest winds will be over the waters northeast of the Bahamas on Wed. These winds will shift to the northeast part of the area Thu as fresh southwest to west winds develop over the waters northeast of northern Florida in advance of the next frontal system. $$ Konarik