000 AXNT20 KNHC 181707 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Feb 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 1008 mb low pressure near 25N84W to western Cuba. N to NW gale force winds continue in the southwest Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Veracruz, and in the south-central Gulf of Mexico off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas greater than 12 ft are south of 88N between 87W and 97W, with peak seas to 20 ft near 22N93W. Gales near Veracruz will diminish this afternoon as the low tracks east- northeastward toward Florida and the front moves into the NW Caribbean. Gales in the south-central Gulf off the Yucatan Peninsula will diminish tonight. Marine conditions will then begin to improve overnight. Lingering strong NW winds will maintain 8-10 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche, S Gulf, and Yucatan Passage through tomorrow morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the Canarias Offshore Zone. NE winds to Force 8, with severe gusts, is expected to continue between the Canary Islands until 18/2100 UTC. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 03S42W. No significant convection is noted at this time. The Monsoon Trough remains inland over Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information about a GALE WARNING. A strong cold front extends from 1008 mb low pressure near 25N84W to western Cuba. A stalled front extends from the low pressure eastward across the northern Florida Keys. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows strong to near-gale force winds in the vicinity of these features. A squall line is analyzed from the Dry Tortugas to near Havana, Cuba. NWS Key West Doppler Radar data indicates possible waterspouts and gusty winds to gale force along the squall line, which will move eastward across the Straits of Florida over the next couple of hours. Scattered showers and tstorms are elsewhere over the eastern Gulf. Outside of the gale warning area, fresh to strong N winds prevail across the Gulf, decreasing to moderate speeds along the northern Gulf Coast. Seas greater than 12 ft are south of 88N between 87W and 97W, with peak seas to 20 ft near 22N93W. Seas 8-11 ft are from 26N to 28N between 85W and 96W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, 4-7 ft seas in the SE Gulf will build to 8-11 ft later this afternoon. The front and low pressure will then exit the basin tonight allowing for marine conditions to improve. Rough seas will continue over portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico into early Mon as high pressure settles over the region. Fresh southerly return flow is expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as the high shifts eastward. These winds diminish Thu as a new frontal boundary approaches the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong cold front has entered the NW Caribbean, and is currently analyzed from western Cuba to central Belize. Strong S winds are along the leading edge of the front according to the latest satellite scatterometer data, with moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. Seas are 4-7 ft in the NW and SW Caribbean. Showers and tstorms are along the cold front. A tight pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure ridging and relatively lower pressure in Colombia is maintaining fresh to strong trades and seas of 8-9 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the E Caribbean with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, winds and seas in the central basin will change little into the early part of the week. A cold front will move across the northwestern Caribbean today through Mon, and across the central Caribbean through the middle of the upcoming week while weakening. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow the front. Rough seas are expected in and near the Yucatan Channel tonight, thereafter, gradually subside. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING. 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 29N74W. Frontal boundaries extend from the low southwest to the Straits of Florida and northeast out of the discussion waters. Moderate to fresh NE winds are north of the fronts, along with scattered showers. Seas are 4-7 ft near these features. A surface trough is from 31N47W to 22N46W. Across the basin north of 20N, trades are gentle to moderate. South of 20N, trades are moderate to fresh. In the East Atlantic north of 20N east of 20W, NE winds are fresh to strong surrounding the Gale Warning area. Seas are 8-11 ft from the equator to 31N between 55W and 30W, increasing to 12 ft east of 30W with peak seas to 15 ft near 29N20W. Swell direction for these elevated seas is NW with a period of 12-14 seconds. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become stationary today from near 31N67W to the NW Bahamas, to South Florida and to low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The atlantic low will lift north of 31N today. The low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will track east-northeastward along the stationary front to over South Florida today, reaching the western Atlantic waters near the NW Bahamas tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue near and to the northwest of the frontal boundary along with rough seas, with the potential for more widespread strong and near gale force winds near the track of the low. A broad area of fresh to strong northwest winds will over the waters northeast of the Bahamas on Wed. These winds will shift to the northeast part of the area Thu as fresh southwest to west winds develop over the waters northeast of northern Florida in advance of the next frontal system. $$ Mahoney