000 AXNT20 KNHC 181157 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Feb 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low near 26N84W to across the northwest part of the Yucatan Peninsula and to inland Mexico just south of Veracruz. Overnight ASCAT satellite data revealed a wide swath of northwest to north gale winds over the western Gulf zones south of 26N and west of 94W. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 13-18 ft. North gale winds will soon begin over the central Gulf waters north of the Yucatan Peninsula with wave heights of 10-15 ft. The gales will diminish this afternoon as the low tracks east-northeastward across the rest of the southeastern Gulf pulling the front southeastward toward the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. Marine conditions will begin to improve this evening and tonight as the front and low pressure pull to the east of basin. Lingering northwest to north producing seas of 8-10 ft will be confined to the waters south and southeast of a line from 26N87W to 25N93W to 21N97W tonight. This swell will decay Monday. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of southern Senegal and extends southwestward to near 10N22W. To its southwest, the ITCZ extends from 04N39W to south of the Equator near 34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 39W-23W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning. A stationary front is analyzed from South Florida to a 1009 mb low near 26N85W. A cold front extends from the low to 21N90W and to the central Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile, high pressure is building southward over the western Gulf areas. Satellite imagery shows abundant overcast mid to high level cloudiness covering most of the basin. Areas of rain with embedded scattered showers are noted between 84W-93W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and near the front and low from 22N to 26N and between 82W-87W. This activity is moving eastward. Elsewhere away from the gale wind areas, an overnight ASCAT satellite data indicates strong to near gale north to northeast winds from 26N to 28N and west of about 92W. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 8-12 ft. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are over the remainder of the basin, except to the southeast of the frontal boundary where winds are lighter, of gentle to moderate speeds. Wave heights elsewhere north of the frontal boundary are in the range of 7-10 ft due to north to northeast swell, and 3-6 ft southeast of the frontal boundary. For the forecast, the front and low pressure will exit the basin tonight allowing for marine conditions to improve. Rough seas will continue over portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico into early Mon as high pressure settles over the region. Fresh southerly return flow is expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as the high shifts eastward. These winds diminish Thu as a frontal boundary approaches the NW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure ridging and relatively lower pressure in Colombia is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds and wave heights of 8 to 9 ft seas over the south-central section of the basin. Overnight ASCAT satellite data indicates moderate to fresh east- southeast winds over the north-central section of the sea north of 15N and between 68W-80W. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 6-8 ft. The ASCAT satellite data also reveals gentle to moderate southeast to south winds over the northwestern part of the sea. Wave heights with these winds are 4-6 ft in southeast to south swell. Moderate to fresh east- southeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas that are over the central basin will change little into early next week. A cold front will move across the northwestern basin Sun through Mon, and across the central basin through the middle of next week while weakening. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will follow the front. Rough seas are expected in and near the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then gradually subside afterward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches southwestward from just to the northwest of Bermuda to 31N72W, then becomes stationary to low pressure of 1010 mb near 30N74W. A cold front extends from the low to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida. Overcast multilayer clouds with embedded areas of light to moderate rain and possible showers are seen to the northwest of the frontal boundary and low pressure. Isolated showers are possible south of the frontal boundary to 25N and west of 76W. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds and seas of 5-7 ft are east of the frontal boundary to near 61W and north of 27N. Gentle to moderate NW winds and 4-6 ft seas are behind the front. To the east of the frontal boundary and low pressure, a central Atlantic trough is analyzed from near 30N45W to 20N47W. Isolated showers are possible from 21N to 31N between 41W-48W. Mostly fresh northeast to east winds along with wave heights of 8-12 ft due to northwest to north swell are present east of 62W, with the highest of the seas in the NE part of the area. This area wave heights will slowly subside through Monday night. Light to gentle winds along with wave heights of about 5-7 ft are over the remainder of the Atlantic basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the 101 mb low near 30N74W will lift north of 31N this morning. Low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will track east-northeastward along the stationary front to over South Florida today, reaching the western Atlantic waters near the NW Bahamas tonight. It is expected to deepen a little. Fresh to strong winds will continue near and to the northwest of the frontal boundary along with rough seas, with the potential for more widespread strong and near gale force winds near the track of the low pressure. A broad area of fresh to strong northwest winds will over the waters northeast of the Bahamas Wed and Wed night. These winds will shift to the northeast part of the area Thu and Thu night as fresh southwest to west develop over the waters northeast of northern Florida in advance of the next frontal system. $$ Aguirre