000 AXNT20 KNHC 172249 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 29N83W to 22N98W. NW to N gale force winds are currently impacting the western Gulf waters offshore Tampico, Mexico. Seas currently 8-9 ft will quickly build to 11-14 ft by Sun morning. Gales and very rough seas will spread southward to the offshore waters of Veracruz, Mexico tonight. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun afternoon, with seas forecast to subside beginning Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir Offshore Zone, effective now through 18/0600 UTC. NE winds to Force 8 with severe gusts and rough to very rough seas are expected. For more information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period northwest swell generated by a low pressure system N of the forecast waters will continue to impact the central Atlantic through tonight. Very rough seas of 12-15 ft with a period of 12-15 seconds are affecting the waters north of 20N east of 47W. These seas are forecast to subside from west to east below 12 ft tonight, but elevated seas of 8-10 ft will prevail across the waters east of 60W through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W, and continues southwestward to near 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 01S45W. Scattered showers are noted along the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information on a GALE WARNING. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NW winds have been reported by surface observations in the wake of the front. As a result of these winds, seas are currently 4-7 ft and building. Gentle to moderate S winds are ahead of the front with 2-4 ft seas. A surface trough is analized over the Bay of Campeche from 24N92W to 21N94W. For the forecast, the gales will expand southward tonight and impact areas offshore Veracruz, Mexico into Sun. Weak low pressure is developing along this front over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This low will move E and SE and reach the SE Gulf of Mexico Sun, when the associated cold front will extend from the Florida Everglades to the Yucatan Peninsula. Additional gales may develop near the low pressure late tonight and early Tue to the N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Rough to very rough seas will also accompany these strong to gale force winds. Later Sun, the front and low pressure will move E and SE of the basin, and conditions will begin to improve. However, rough seas will continue over portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico into Mon, when high pressure will settle into the region. Fresh southerly return flow is expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as the high shifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low continue to support fresh to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean. Latest satellite altimeter data from depicts seas are 8-10 ft from 10N to 16N between 66W and 80W. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas are elsewhere in the southwest, central, and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South America is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean, which will prevail into early next week. A cold front will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sun into Mon and across the central Caribbean through the middle of next week, while weakening. Fresh to locally strong northwest to north winds will follow the front. Rough seas are expected in and near the Yucatan Channel Sun night, with gradually subsiding seas thereafter. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Significant Swell event and Agadir Gale Warning. 1025 mb high pressure is near 31N45W. A dissipating stationary front is from 31N33W to 21N60W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic, increasing to fresh speeds S of 15N. Seas 8-12 ft in NW swell are north of a line from 31N10W to 08N40W to 18N61W to 31N65W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas E of 65W will shift E and SE of the forecast waters tonight. A cold front will emerge off the Florida coast this evening, then stall tonight. Low pressure is forecast to form near South Florida Sun into Sun night along the front, then move NE and out of the area by Tue. Along and NW of the frontal boundary, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail, with the potential for more widespread strong and near gale force winds near the track of the low pressure. $$ ERA