000 AXNT20 KNHC 162330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight gradient between high pressure of 1022 mb located over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean Sea is supporting gale-force winds offshore Colombia. These winds are forecast to peak at 35 kt tonight with seas of 11 or 12 ft. Strong trade winds will persist through early next week across this area. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off the Texas coast Sat morning, with strong to near gale force winds following the front in the NW Gulf Sat morning and continue across most of basin through Sun night. Gale force winds will develop behind the cold front offshore of Tampico, Mexico Sat afternoon and Veracruz, Mexico by Sat evening. Near gale to gale force winds are also possible along the cold front in the central Gulf as it sweeps across the basin. Rough to very rough seas will spread across most of the Gulf Sat through Sun. Weak low pressure will develop along the front in the NW Gulf on Sat and track eastward across the basin during the weekend. The cold front will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon and from the Florida Keys to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning. The front will push east of the basin by Sun night. Wave heights with the strongest winds are forecast to reach 16 to 18 ft on Sun. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period northwest swell generated by a storm-force low pressure system over the northern Atlantic will continue to impact the central Atlantic through Sat. Expect very rough to high seas of 12 to 20 ft currently affecting the waters north of 24N and E of 60W to spread farther southward to near 21N on Sat. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft by Sat night, but seas 8 ft or greater will continue to dominate the most of the waters E of 60W. Marine interests in the above areas need to monitor these situations closely and plan accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Guinea Bissau, then extends southwestward to near 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 02N24W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 02N between 35W and 39W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for an upcoming Gale Warning. Upper-level southwesterly flow as a result of a persistent southern jet stream branch is advecting plenty of thick cirrus cloudiness across the west-central and northern Gulf. Patches of rain, with embedded showers are over the western Gulf, and along the northern Gulf States. Otherwise, a weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered over the western Atlantic. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted over the Gulf waters S of 26N while light and variable winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 4 ft over the SW Gulf. For the forecast, marine conditions across the Gulf of Mexico will be associated with a strong cold front moving across the region this upcoming weekend. The front is forecast to bring gale force winds and very rough seas. Please read the Special Features section for more details. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. High pressure N of the basin combined with the Colombian low continue to support fresh to strong winds across the south- central Caribbean. The most recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these wind speeds while an altimeter pass indicated seas up to 13 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are observed across the remainder of the central Caribbean with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with seas generally in the 3 to 5 ft range, except in the lee of Cuba where seas are 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, winds are forecast to reach gale force off the Colombia coast tonight. Strong trade winds will persist through early next week across this area. The next cold front will move across the NW Caribbean Sun into Mon, bringing moderate to locally fresh winds with moderate to potentially rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Significant Swell event. A dissipating cold front extends from 31N35W to 21N57W where it becomes a weakening stationary front to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. This front is followed by another cold front that runs from 31N40W to near 24N53W. A broken band of mainly low clouds with possible showers is related to both fronts. A belt of fresh NE to E winds is within about 120 nm N of the stationary front. Moderate to fresh Nw winds are also noted in the wake of the cold front. High pressure of 1022 mb dominates the western Atlantic. Light and variable winds are seen under the influence of this system. A 1029 mb high located just N of the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast area. Gentle to moderate trades are across the tropical atlantic with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Seas 8 ft or greater are currently affecting the waters N of 20N and E of 66W. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned weakening frontal boundary will continue to dissipate by tonight. Very rough to high seas N of 23N and E of 65W will move E and SE of the forecast waters on Sat. Moderate to rough seas will continue through early next week. Another cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Sat, bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of 25N and E of 70W through early next week. Low pressure may form along the front near the Bahamas Sun night into Mon and track northeastward late Tue. Strong winds and rough seas is possible with this low. $$ GR