000 AXNT20 KNHC 150420 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Feb 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure building over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over the western Caribbean Sea and in South America will result in a tightening of the pressure gradient across the Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Seas will build to near 12 ft during the period of gale force winds. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long period NW swell generated from a hurricane-force low over the northern Atlantic will impact the central Atlantic waters. Seas with this swell will peak near 20 ft over the discussion waters north of 30N between 45W and 55W on today and tonight. The leading edge of 12 ft seas will propagate SE over the next couple of days, covering the waters roughly north of 23N between 25W and 60W late Fri. Afterwards, areal coverage of 12 ft seas will start to decrease as seas gradually subside below 12 ft through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic on the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 02S35W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf between high pressure centered over northern Georgia and a pair of weak troughs over the west coast of Florida and along 90W from the central Gulf to the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, but light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward through Fri. Weak low pressure ill develop over the NW Gulf on Sat and track eastward toward the eastern Gulf through late Sat. The attendant cold front is expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon, and from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Sat night. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected behind the front through the weekend. Winds to minimal gale force are possible in the wake of the front during the upcoming weekend, especially in the western Gulf. Mostly fresh winds will pulse off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula at night Wed and Thu in the late afternoons and evenings. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning off Colombia. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to central Honduras. A few showers may be active near the front between Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh trade winds across the south- central Caribbean. The scatterometer pass missed the central coast of Colombia, but strong to near-gale force winds are likely already active there between high pressure north of the area and 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia. A concurrent altimeter pass indicated 8 to 10 ft in the same areas. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure building north of the area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean. Winds will reach gale force off the Colombia coast tonight, Thu night and Fri night, with strong trade winds continuing into the weekend. Meanwhile, a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to northeast Honduras. The front will slowly dissipate through late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on significant swell over the north-central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N50W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong SW winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite data within 240 nm east of the front north of 27N. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are also noted west of the front to 70W, mainly north of 29N. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes show the large NW swell discussed in the Special Features section approaching the area from the north, mainly between 50W and 70W. 1021 mb high pressure is centered southeast of the front near 22N45W. This is part of a broader ridge extending across the eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 55W, supporting mostly moderate trade winds farther south and gentle breezes elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in NW to N swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will reach from near 25N55W to 21N65W and to the eastern tip of Cuba by early this afternoon, then stall along 21N east of 76W on Fri while it weakens through Fri night. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds behind the front north of 29N will shift east of 55W late tonight. Rough to very rough seas north of 25N and east of 73W will translate E and SE of the forecast waters on Sat. Winds will diminish from W to E on Fri as high pressure builds along 30N in the wake of the front. The rough to very rough seas will persist through the weekend. Another cold front will emerge off the Florida coast later in the weekend, bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas north of 25N and east of 70W through Mon. $$ Christensen