000 AXNT20 KNHC 131014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds are reaching minimal gale force near 31N between 77W and 80W off northeast Florida. This is ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. The gale-force winds will shift eastward as far east as 65W through this afternoon before diminishing below gale-force late today. Seas are expected to build during this time and peak at 12-16 ft in mixed SW and W swell by this afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 00N50W. A few showers are observed within 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 15W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front from reaches from near Cedar Key, Florida to the central Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong NW winds follow the front over the northeast Gulf, along with rough seas following the front from the northeast to southwest Gulf. Winds and seas are starting to diminish over the northwest Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will shift southeast of the basin this morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas follow the front. Winds and seas will diminish through tonight as high pressure builds from west to east over the northern Gulf coast in the wake of the front. Fresh winds will pulse off the west coast of Yucatan Thu and Fri as a trough develops there in the evenings. Moist E to SE flow will support areas of fog Thu and Fri as well. Looking ahead, low pressure will develop over the northwest Gulf late Fri ahead of a cold front will move off the Texas coast late early Sat. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front as it reaches from central Florida to the far southwest Gulf by late Sat. Winds to gale-force are possible over the west-central and southwest Gulf late Sat and Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is entering the northwest Caribbean this morning. It currently extends from the central Yucatan Channel to northern Belize. Farther east, a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the 1022 mb high pressure system and lower pressures in northern South America result in strong to near gale- force easterly trade winds in the south- central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident in the north- central and SE Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. No deep convection is noted across the basin. For the forecast, the front will stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Wed, and then will dissipate through late Thu. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the southern Caribbean through Sat, with winds possibly reaching gale force off Colombia Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on the gales-force winds off northeast Florida. The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 25N and west of 25W, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure system centered near 25N56W. Moderate to locally strong westerly winds are found north of 27N and between 35W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N45W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds persist south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Farther east, a dissipating stationary front extends from 31N27W to 21N36W. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. In the far NE Atlantic, a moderate pressure gradient support moderate to fresh NE winds north of 25N and east of 20W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere outside of the gales area, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, SW winds are starting increase along a pre-frontal trough reaching from the Carolinas to southeast Florida. The front will move off the northeast Florida coast later this morning. The front will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba late today, from 30N55W to central Cuba by late Wed, before stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N through Thu night into Fri morning. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front mainly north of 28N, reaching gale force along 31N today. Winds will diminish from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds along 30N in the wake of the front, although large wave heights will persist a little longer. $$ Christensen