000 AXNT20 KNHC 122303 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Feb 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds have begun to increase today off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas, ahead of a Gulf of Mexico cold front approaching the area from the west. Winds will reach minimal gale-force N of 30N between 75W and 80W tonight, then shift eastward as far E as 66W through Tue afternoon before diminishing below Gale-force. Seas are expected to build during this time and peak at 12 to 16 ft in mixed SW and W swell by Tue afternoon. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale-force NW to N winds are occurring across the SW Gulf of Mexico this evening, behind a cold front that stretches from Pensacola Bay to the central Bay of Campeche. Winds will diminish below gale force this evening, but the duration and long fetch of the winds will allow seas to build as high as 14 ft across the W central and SW Gulf through early tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 02.5N23W. The ITCZ extends from 02.5N23W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5S43W. A line of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 04N between 24W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force NW to N winds prevail S of 24N and within 180 nm behind a cold front that extends from from Pensacola Bay to the central Bay of Campeche along 94W. Afternoon altimeter satellite data and buoy observations across the west central and southwest Gulf show that seas have already built to 12-14 ft immediately behind the front, and suggest that gale-force winds likely accompanied the front across central portions early this afternoon. Elsewhere behind the front, strong NW to N winds of 20 to 30 kt extend from the Texas coastal waters to the front, with seas of 7 to 12 ft. N of 25N and ahead of the front fresh to strong S to SW winds dominate the NE Gulf, where seas are 5 to 9 ft. Narrow lines of scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the NE Gulf ahead of the front, north of 27N. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE across the Gulf tonight, and reach the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel by Tue morning. Gale-force winds are expected to diminish to around30 kt later this evening. Otherwise, fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas will follow the front through Tue morning. Marine conditions will continue to improve Wed and Thu as a ridge builds across the basin. Gales are possible again Fri night through Sat night as low pressure, and an associated cold front, move E-SE across the Gulf region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Winds across the Caribbean Basin have diminished slightly today, as an Atlantic high pressure ridge N of the basin has shifted eastward, ahead of the cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Strong easterly trade winds continue across south central portions, S of 14N, while fresh to strong SE to S winds across the Gulf of Honduras and into the Yucatan Channel have diminished to moderate to fresh. Satellite altimeter data at midday measured peak seas persisting at 12-13 ft offshore of Colombia, and have likely subsided to 10-11 ft since that time. Elsewhere seas are 6 t 9 ft across the central and south central Caribbean and 5 to 8 ft NW portions. Scattered showers continue across the eastern Caribbean along 14.5N, along a dying frontal trough extending across the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, a cold front currently moving through the Gulf of Mexico will enter the Yucatan Channel early Tue then start to stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by mid week. Large NE swell will continue to move into the northeast Caribbean through Atlantic passages into tonight. Looking ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will support a new round of fresh to strong trade winds across mainly the central Caribbean by mid week, possibly reaching gale-force off Colombia each night, Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the developing gales expected tonight off northeast Florida. The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 25N/26N west of 32W, anchored by 1020 mb high pressure centered near 25N56W. Earlier buoy observations and scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh southerly flow from the NW Bahamas to offshore northeast Florida, and moderate trade winds south of the ridge. Buoy and altimeter data shows large swell persisting across the regional waters, but has subsided to 7 to 11 ft E of 70W this afternoon. North of the ridge, fresh to strong westerly winds are N of 29N between 35W and 60W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N25W to 19N41W. Northerly swell with wave heights as high as 8 to 10 ft extends as far south as 21N, east of 35W, with moderate seas elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to shift eastward over the next couple of days, ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast late tonight into early Tue morning. The front will reach from E of Bermuda near 31N59W to central Cuba by Wed morning, and from 31N50W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning, before starting to stall and dissipate from 24N55W to the Mona Passage by late Thu. Strong to gale-force winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front tonight through Tue, mainly N of 30N between 65W and 80W. $$ Stripling