000 AXNT20 KNHC 122203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds have begun to increase today off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas, ahead of a Gulf of Mexico cold front approaching the area from the west. Winds will reach minimal gale-force N of 30N between 75W and 80W tonight, then shift eastward as far E as 66W through Tue afternoon before diminsining below Gale-force. Seas are expected to build during this time and peak at 12 to 16 ft in mixed SW and W swell by Tue afternoon. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale-force NW to N winds are occurring across the SW Gulf of Mexico this evening, behind a cold front that stretches from Mobile Bay to the central Bay of Campeche. Winds will diminish below gale force this evening, but the duration and long fetch of the winds will allow seas to build as high as 14 ft across the W central and SW Gulf through early tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 04N25W. The ITCZ extends from 04N25W to 04N51W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong NW winds and rough seas follow a cold front extending from Marsh Island, Louisiana to Tecolutla, Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong SE to S winds over the central Gulf ahead of the front. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated combined seas of 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm ahead of the front, north of 26N. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from southeast Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico later this morning, and exit to the southeast of the basin by Tue morning. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas follow the front, reaching gale force off Veracruz later this morning. Marine conditions will improve Wed and Thu as a ridge builds across the Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in effect for Colombian coastal waters. An evening scatterometer satellite pass indicated near-gale force NE to E winds off Colombia, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere over the south-central Caribbean. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass and buoy observations showed combined seas to 8 to 11 ft. These winds are due to a tight gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass along with buoy observations showed fresh to strong SE to S winds over the northwest Caribbean. Concurrent altimeter passes and buoy observations indicated 8 to 10 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere. Seas to 8 ft due to northerly swell may still be penetrating through the Mona Passage. Buoy observations show moderate combined seas elsewhere. A few showers are possible over the northeast Caribbean. For the forecast, the gale-force winds off Colombia will diminish later this morning as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The front will enter the Yucatan Channel later today then start to stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by mid week. Large northerly swell will continue to move into the northeast Caribbean via Atlantic passages into Mon night. Looking ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will support a new round of fresh to strong trade winds across mainly the central Caribbean by mid week, possibly reaching gale force off Colombia by late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on ongoing significant swell in the north-central tropical Atlantic, and the developing gales off northeast Florida. The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 26N/27N west of 40W, anchored by 1023 mb high pressure centered near 27N62W. REcent buoy observations and scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh southerly flow off northeast Florida, and south of the ridge, along with evidence the large swell persists as described in the Special Features section. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N28W to 20N40W. Northerly swell with wave heights as high as 8 to 10 ft extends as far south as 24N, east of 35W, with moderate seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the ridge will move eastward across the central Atlantic through mid- week, ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast late tonight into early Tue morning. Strong to near- gale force S to SW winds will develop off northeast Florida through tonight ahead of the this cold front, reaching minimal gale-force tonight. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by late Tue, from 31N50W to eastern Cuba by late Wed, before starting to stall and dissipate from 24N55W to the Mona Passage by late Thu. $$ Stripling