000 AXNT20 KNHC 121802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A cold front is along 30N89W 19N95W. Expect: near gale-force to gale-force NW to N winds, and rough seas, from 26N southward to the west of the cold front. Expect elsewhere to the west of the cold front: strong to near gale-force NW to N winds, with frequent gusts to gale-force, and rough seas. Expect: fresh to strong SW winds, and moderate to rough seas, from 26N northward between 85W and the cold front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Expect for tonight, to the east of Florida: the current Gulf of Mexico cold front will be approaching from the west. Gale-force SW winds, and rough seas, will be from 30N northward between 74W and 80W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W, to 03N20W and 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W, to 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 35W, to 02S43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds for today. A cold front passes through the north central Gulf area/SE Louisiana, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 19N96W, and inland in Mexico near 23N102W. Surface high pressure is building into the areas that are to the northwest of the cold front. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are to the north of the line that passes through NE Florida, to the coast of Mexico that is along 20N. Mostly moderate seas are everywhere. One exception is for moderate to rough seas that are about 210 nm to the NNW of the Yucatan Channel. A second exception is for slight seas in the coastal waters of the Florida west coast, and into the Straits of Florida; and from 20N southward in the extreme SW part of the Gulf. A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters and extends from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico followed by gale force winds and rough seas. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by this evening with winds diminishing below gale force. Then, this system is forecast to exit the Gulf region by Tue morning. Marine conditions will improve Wed and Thu as a ridge builds across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 16N50W, to 14N60W, and to 14N63W in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: rainshowers are from the surface trough to 20N between 54W and 72W. Rough seas are from 16N southward between 73W and 80W. Mostly moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are: slight seas are in the coastal waters from Belize to the border of Panama/Colombia. Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere from 80W eastward. Earlier strong to near gale-force E to SE winds for the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea have been slowing down with time. Moderate or slower trade winds are in the SW corner of the area. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the rest of the area. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 12/1200 UTC, are: 0.29 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.06 in Guadeloupe; and 0.03 in Trinidad, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Gale-force winds off Colombia will diminish later this morning as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The front will enter the Yucatan Channel tonight then start to stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by mid week. Large northerly swell will continue to move into the northeast Caribbean via Atlantic passages into tonight. Looking ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will support a new round of fresh to strong trade winds across mainly the central Caribbean by mid week, possibly reaching gale force off Colombia at night Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for the forecast about gale-force winds for the waters that are to the east of Florida, for tonight. Rough seas are inside the area that is bounded by the points: 31N10W 28N16W 24N22W 19N35W 14N44W, to the coast of Brazil along 60W, 14N60W 20N70W 31N70W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front is along 31N26W 26N31W 20N40W. A surface trough is defined in the visible satellite imagery as a thin line of low level clouds that is along 20N40W 15N50W 14N60W, to 14N63W in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 21N northward between 25W and 35W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are from 28N northward from 73W westward. Fresh to strong SW winds are from 30N northward between 30W and 67W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 26N59W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 15N northward from the stationary front/surface trough eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 13N southward between 47W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 20N southward between 35W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A ridge axis extends east to west along roughly 26N anchored by 1022 mb high pressure near 26N59W. The high pressure will move eastward across the central Atlantic through mid- week, ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast late tonight into early Tue morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by late Tue, from 31N50W to eastern Cuba by late Wed, before starting to stall and dissipate from 24N55W to the Mona Passage by late Thu. Strong to gale force winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front tonight and Tue, mainly N of 30N between 70W and 80W. $$ mt/gr