000 AXNT20 KNHC 112351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure system south of Bermuda and lower pressures in NW South America are resulting in strong to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough to very rough seas from 11N to 14N and between 73W and 78W, offshore Colombia. Nocturnal winds will increase to gale-force tonight across this area, with seas will peaking around 12 early Mon morning. These conditions will gradually diminishing Mon through Tue as the high pressure center drifts eastward and the pressure gradient weakens. Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A strong non-tropical cyclone in the north Atlantic is producing a large area of long period N to NE swell across the regional Atlantic waters E of 70W. This is resulting in seas of 12-14 ft occurring N of 27N and between 35W and 51W. This swell will gradually fade through Mon, with seas falling below 12 ft west of 35W tonight. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the Texas coast late early this evening, and across the Gulf Basin tonight through through Tue morning. Behind the front, NW winds will briefly increase to near gale-force with frequent gusts to gale- force offshore of Mexico tonight between Brownsville and Cabo Rojo, Mexico, and then to gale-force Mon morning off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico south of 21N and west of 95W. Peak seas are expected to build to 12 ft with and behind the gale-force winds on Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico on Mon morning, and move to the southeast of the Gulf waters late Tue. High pressure will build across the basin behind the front with quickly improving marine conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and continues southwestward to 06.5N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N19W to 02N33W and to 00.5N50W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 41W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico. A broad ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward to the west-central Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh, moist southerly winds across the Gulf. Multi-layered clouds are producing overcast skies across the NW third of the basin, ahead of the front. Scattered moderate elevated convection is streaming northeastward across the NW Gulf and into SE Louisiana, supported by a jetstream segment. Oil platforms over the northwest Gulf to Louisiana have been reporting visibility as low as 3 to 5 nm in haze. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft in SE swell between 84W and 96W, and up to 8 ft just N of the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the central Gulf will shift east over the next 24 hours ahead of a cold front that is currently entering the NW Gulf region. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by Mon morning, and exit the basin by midday Tue. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow the front. Gale-force winds are forecast off Veracruz on Mon morning while frequent gusts to gale force are expected elsewhere in the wake of the front. Marine conditions will improve Wed and Thu as a ridge builds across the Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in effect for Colombian coastal waters. Western Atlantic high pressure centered north of the Caribbean islands extends a broad ridge southward across the region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW South America are resulting in fresh to strong easterly trade winds over the Caribbean basin E of 80W, and fresh to locally strong SE to S winds across the NW basin. Winds offshore of NW Colombia are presently just below gale-force winds as discussed in the Special Features section. The strongest winds outside of the south-central Caribbean are evident in the north- central Caribbean, and across the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 8-11 ft prevail in the south-central Caribbean waters, 6-8 ft N of 15N, and 7-9 ft across the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, NE swell will continue to impact the NE Caribbean and passages as well as the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Mon before subsiding on Tue. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale-force winds and rough seas near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds will persist across the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, through early Mon afternoon. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean midday Tue, then reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Wed while dissipating. Gale conditions are possible near the coast of Colombia Wed night and Thu night as high pressure builds again in the wake of the front and N of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on ongoing significant swell in the north-central tropical Atlantic. A ridge extends across the western Atlantic along roughly 27N anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure system south of Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 21N and west of 50W, and fresh SE to S winds west of the ridge from the central Bahamas north and westward to offshore of Georgia. Seas remain 7-10 ft S of 21N and E of 70W, 8 to 14 ft elsewhere E of 70W, and 6-9 ft in NE swell W of 70W. Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 25N35W and continues southwestward as a frontal trough to the Lesser Antilles near 14.5N60.5W. Isolated showers are noted near the boundary. Fresh westerly winds are present north of 30N and between the front and 48W. Fresh SW winds are occurring ahead of the front to 27W and north of 27N, along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure located near 28N63W dominates most of the forecast region. This system will move eastward across the central Atlantic through mid-week. Strong to near-gale force S to SW winds will develop off NE Florida on Mon and Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to exit the SE U.S. and south Florida Tue morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas by Tue evening, from 31N60W to the central Bahamas by Wed morning, and from 27N55W to the SE Bahamas by Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front, and mainly N of 27N through at least Tue night. $$ Stripling