000 AXNT20 KNHC 090953 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Feb 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell: A 975 mb low pressure centered near 38N54W continues to move northeast away from our waters. A cold front enters the area near 31N48W and extends southwest to the Anegada Passage. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring north of 25N east of the front to 42W. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail west of the front. Large N swell with seas of 12-14 ft and a period of 10-13 seconds is forecast to persist north of 25N between 49W and 70W. Seas are 8 ft or greater across the Atlantic west of 65W, including near Atlantic exposures of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. This area of significant swell will gradually shift northeastward through the weekend. Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next few days across the western and central atlantic, as this swell event will maintain hazardous marine conditions. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between lower pressure over South America and higher pressure building over the Atlantic will support pulsing near-gale to gale force winds and rough seas off Colombia on tonight and Sat night. Conditions will begin to improve Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N11W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 02N45W. No significant convection is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate SE return flow prevails over the Gulf of Mexico with E fresh winds just north of Yucatan. Seas are 5-7 ft in the waters west of 90W, and 3-5 ft in the waters east of 90W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is expected across the Gulf basin through early Sun as high pressure along the eastern seaboard shifts E into the Atlc. Patchy fog is possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds will briefly increase to gale-force W of 95W on Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning and reach the SE Gulf Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean. A cold front enters the Caribbean through the Anegada Passage and continues southwestward to 16N69W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail through the Mona and Windward Passages with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate to fresh with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will move SE and dissipate through this evening. Large northerly swell will impact Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean today then gradually become NE over the weekend before subsiding Mon. High pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic and move slowly E-SE through Mon. This will produce fresh to strong trade winds and building seas over the south-central Caribbean by tonight, reaching gale-force off Colombia tonight and then pulse to gale-force again Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the ongoing Significant Swell event in the W Atlantic. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a 1019 mb high is centered near 25N31W with ridging extending across the eastern Atlantic. Between the high/ridge and the ITCZ, the trades are gentle to moderate with seas 5-7 ft. North of the high/ridge to 31N W winds are fresh to strong with seas 8-11 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NW winds will prevail tonight across the west Atlantic behind a frontal boundary currently E of 60W, extending SW into the NE Caribbean. Rough to very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will continue N of 27N and E of 65W today. Winds will diminish from west to east through Sun as the front moves SE and weaken and high pressure slides E-SE along 27N-28N and into the area waters. Strong S to SW will develop across offshore N FL waters ahead of the next cold front on Mon. $$ ERA