000 AXNT20 KNHC 051750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Feb 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warnings are in effect for the Gulf of Mexico, northwestern Caribbean Sea, and western Atlantic Ocean. These warnings are associated with a deepening low pressure system and the associated cold front moving from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. This system will continue to produce hazardous marine conditions across parts of the forecast area through at least Tue night. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of days across the Gulf of Mexico, the NW Caribbean and the western Atlantic outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds associated with the successive weather systems. The large wind fields will build very rough seas. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A deep 998 mb low pressure system south of Apalachicola, Florida to near Cancun, Mexico. Gale force winds are ongoing near and W of the front with seas to 15 ft. These conditions will prevail into tonight as the features move E across the eastern Gulf. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas associated with this weather scenario. Caribbean Gale Warning: As the front mentioned above enters the W Caribbean today, winds are forecast to reach gale-force over the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean this afternoon, with seas building as high as 18 or 19 ft in the Yucatan Channel late on Mon. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the northwester Caribbean Mon through Tue. Strong winds and rough seas behind the front will reach the north-central and southwestern Caribbean, including the waters between Cuba and Jamaica, and the Windward Passage Tue into Wed. Atlantic Gale Warning: A deep low pres will enter the W Atlantic on Mon night, with gale force winds and very rough seas developing across the area. The low and associated front will continue to move E across the Atlantic waters with between northeast Florida and Bermuda through midweek, bringing gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the western Atlantic. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this next system. It is possible that the stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Seas are forecast to build to 12-20 ft within the strongest winds, mainly north of 27N and west of 70W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 03N33W and then to 03N46W. A few showers are seen near the ITCZ between 38W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A complex low pressure system dominate much of the Gulf of Mexico producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 22N. Subsidence in the Bay of Campeche and allow for mostly sunny skies. Outside of the gale area, fresh or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, gale conditions will subside on Mon night. Surface ridging will then prevail across the basin through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A cold front extends from central Cuba to southern Belize and a few showers are noted ahead of the boundary. Fresh to strong NW winds and moderate seas are evident behind the front. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of 3-6 ft are present in the remainder of the NW Caribbean, north-central and SW Caribbean. Farther east, Fresh to locally strong SE-S winds are noted in the eastern Caribbean, especially east of 66W and north of 16N. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, outside of the gale warning area, fresh to locally strong southerly winds will affect the eastern Caribbean through midweek. Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, large northerly swell may impact Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible over the south-central Caribbean by late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A cold front extends from a 999 mb low pressure system off South Carolina and enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N77W to central Cuba. Meanwhile, a surface trough extends from 27N76W to a 1001 mb low pressure system near 25N69W and then northeastward to 31N50W. Latest satellite imagery depict a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the NW Bahamas, while similar conditions is noted north of 22N and between 55W and 66W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong NE winds north of the surface trough and east of 65W to the aforementioned cold front. Fresh to strong southerly winds are found south of the surface trough and between 55W and 70W. Seas of 6-11 ft are evident west of 60W. Latest satellite-derived wind data also show fresh to strong westerly winds north of a line from 31N61W to 27N55W and to 31N30W. Northerly swell associated with a strong low pressure in the NW Atlantic result in seas of 8-14 ft in the area described, with the highest seas near 31N55W. Broad ridging dominates the remainder of the Atlantic, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and sight to moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will persist off the Florida east coast and across the Bahamas today behind a cold front that currently extends from 999 mb low pressure off Georgia to central Cuba. Deep low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move into the western Atlantic tonight, with gale force winds and very rough seas developing across the area. The low and associated front will continue to move E across the Atlantic waters with between northeast Florida and Bermuda through midweek bringing gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the western Atlantic. $$ Delgado