000 AXNT20 KNHC 042304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Feb 05 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warnings are in effect for the Gulf of Mexico, northwestern Caribbean Sea, and western Atlantic Ocean. These warnings are associated with a deepening low pressure system and the attendant cold front moving from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. This system and a reinforcing system will bring hazardous marine conditions across parts of the forecast area through at least Tue night. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of days across the Gulf of Mexico, the NW Caribbean and the western Atlantic outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near- gale force winds associated with the successive weather systems. The large wind fields will build very rough seas. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A deep low pressure system of 994 mb is located inland the Florida panhandle near Tallahassee. Its attendant cold front extends from the low south-southwestward to 25N84W, to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula and to low pressure near 20N93W 1006 mb. A warm front extends from the low southeastward across northern Florida, and continues southeastward to the NW Bahamas. A cold front extends from the 1006 mb low to just south of Veracruz. Another cold front extends from south-central Louisiana to near 25N94W. A second deepening low pressure system and associated occluded frontal structure located in southern Texas is forecast to migrate across the central and eastern Gulf late tonight through Mon night. This next system will bring more gale winds and very rough seas for the central and southeastern Gulf. Seas with this next gale event are forecast to peak to around 16 ft mainly in the north- central Gulf section, and to 14 ft in the west-central Gulf. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with these successive weather systems. Caribbean Gale Warning: The weather pattern will be undergoing a change into tonight as a cold front moves through the Yucatan Channel into the northwestern Caribbean Sea Deep low pressure north of the area will support strong west to northwest winds and rough to very rough seas in the wake of the front over the NW Caribbean starting tonight. Winds are forecast to reach gale-force over the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean by Mon afternoon, with seas building as high as 18 or 20 ft in the Yucatan Channel late on Mon. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the northwester Caribbean Mon through Tue. Strong winds and rough seas behind the front will reach the north- central and southwestern Caribbean, including the waters between Cuba and Jamaica, and the Windward Passage Tue into Wed. Atlantic Gale Warning: Deepening low pressure analyzed over the Florida panhandle near Tallahassee has a warm front extending eastward to northeastward to along the border between southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. Southeast winds will increase and seas will build off the Florida east coast and across the Bahamas this evening into tonight ahead of the low, and its associated cold front that is over the eastern Gulf as of 18Z. These features will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week. Strong to gale force northerly winds are expected across the coastal waters of Florida Mon night into Tue. At the same time, strong westerly winds are forecast to affect the Bahamas and most of the waters south of about 29N and west of 65W, while strong to gale force winds are expected north of 29N. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this next system. It is possible that the stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Seas are forecast to build to 12-20 ft within the strongest winds, mainly north of 27N and west of 70W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N23W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues along 04N32W to 05N40W and to near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 14W-19W, and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 39W and 40W and between 47W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an upcoming gale warning. The 18Z surface analysis has deep low pressure of 994 mb centered inland the Florida panhandle near Tallahassee. Its attendant cold front extends from the low south-southwestward to 25N84W, to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula and to low pressure near 20N93W 1006 mb. A warm front extends from the low southeastward across northern Florida, and continues southeastward to the NW Bahamas. A cold front extends from the 1006 mb low to just south of Veracruz. Another cold front extends from south-central Louisiana to near 25N94W. A second cold front extends from south-central Louisiana to near 25N94W. A trough extends from the SW Gulf near 20N95W northwest to north to near 24N97W. No significant weather is present with this feature. Latest ASCAT data passes show fresh to strong west winds north of 25N. Seas with these winds are in the 8-11 ft range as noted in a recent altimeter satellite pass. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are elsewhere across the basin along with seas of 6-8 ft north of 25N and 4-6 ft south of 25N, except for lower seas of 3-4 ft in the SW Gulf. The earlier widespread shower and thunderstorm activity that was over the southeastern Gulf has shifted east of the basin. Isolated showers are possible over some areas of the eastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight seas are between the offshore waters S of Tampico and Veracruz adjacent waters. For the forecast, the above mentioned deep low pressure system will maintain fresh to strong winds and rough seas through this evening. The attendant cold front will also move across the eastern Gulf today, and then exit to the southeast of the Gulf tonight. Afterward, a second deepening low pressure from southern Texas is going to migrate across the central and eastern Gulf late tonight through Monday night. This next system will bring more gale winds and very rough seas for the central and southeastern Gulf. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with these successive weather systems. the deep low pressure system and attendant cold front will keep gale-force winds and rough seas in the eastern basin until late this afternoon when the cold front is expected to exit to the southeast of the Gulf. Afterward, a second deepening low pressure from southern Texas is going to migrate across the central and eastern Gulf tonight through Monday night. This next system will bring more gale force winds and very rough seas for the central and southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and vicinity waters, with seas expected to peak to around 15 ft with these winds. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with these successive weather systems. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Gale Warning for the Yucatan Channel, and in the very near future for the northwestern Caribbean. The southern extend of a squall line is racing eastward over western Cuba, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds over the northwestern Caribbean Sea have increased to moderate to fresh speeds as noted in the latest ASCAT data pass over that part of the Caribbean. This is occurring in advance of a weak cold front that is over the eastern and southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and is presently approaching the Yucatan Channel. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft. Generally, light to gentle east to southeast winds are elsewhere across the basin, with seas of 3-5 ft. Scattered to broken, and at times occasionally overcast, low and mid-level clouds, with possible scattered showers are over the eastern part of the sea from 14N to 17N east of 65W. Mainly fair weather conditions are elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move into the northwestern Caribbean tonight, just ahead of a stronger, reinforcing front that moves through the Yucatan Channel Mon. The fronts will merge from central Cuba to northeast Nicaragua by late Mon, then reach from the Mona Passage to eastern Panama by late Tue. It should weaken as it moves through the eastern Caribbean through mi week. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the northwest Caribbean Mon through Tue. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as they spread across the western Caribbean into Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A wide swath of strong to near gale-force southeast winds are over the offshore waters of northeast Florida, while fresh to strong southeast to south winds are south of there and west of 77W as shown in the latest ASCAT data pass over those waters and by recent NOAA buoy data. Seas are up to 9 ft north of Cape Canaveral and to around 7 ft south of Cape Canaveral. To the east of the Bahamas, a weakening stationary front extends from near 28N55W to 25N61W and to 25N70W. Earlier ASCAT data passes depicted moderate to fresh west to northwest winds north of the front. Seas of 6-9 ft in northwest swell are within the area of these winds. In central Atlantic, a large trough is analyzed from near 31N39W southwestward to 25N43W and to near 17N57W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the trough to near 30N and north of about 24N. Otherwise, broad high pressure covers the eastern Atlantic east of the trough. The related gradient is allowing for gentle to locally moderate east to southeast winds east of 35W, and northeast to east winds of similar speeds in the deep tropics. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned weakening stationary front will dissipate this evening ahead of a deep low pressure system and related cold front moving through the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will persist off the Florida east coast and across the Bahamas this evening. These features will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week bringing gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the western Atlantic. $$ Aguirre