000 AXNT20 KNHC 031758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Feb 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An area of developing low pressure moved off the coast of S Texas this morning, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and 5-7 ft seas. The low will continue to move east across the northern Gulf today and tonight, with gale force winds expected overnight through early Sun morning. Seas will build to 8-10 ft across waters north of 24N between 84W and 90W. This low will exit the basin by Sun night. Also on Sun night, a second and stronger low pressure system will move off the Louisiana coast into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Gales will pulse briefly in the central Gulf late Sun night through Mon morning. The low pressure will move into the W Atlantic on Monday. Westerly gales will begin Mon afternoon in the SE Gulf, Yucatan Channel, and Straits of Florida, with seas building to 12-18 ft. Winds and seas are forecast to subside beginning on Tue. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of days across the Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale warning areas, due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds associated with the successive weather systems. The large wind fields will build rough to very rough seas across much of the Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern Liberia to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W to 03N59W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ east of 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. At 1500 UTC, 1001 mb low pressure is just offshore Corpus Christi, Texas, near 27N97W. A cold front extends from the low to the S Texas Coast. A warm front extends from the low to 29N93W to 28N89W. A squall line is from 26.6N97.0W to 27.8N95.0W. Additional scattered moderate convection is north of 27N between 87W and 95W. Fresh to strong S winds prevail in the NW Gulf near the low and fronts, with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail across most remaining Gulf waters, with 3-5 ft seas. The eastern Gulf is experiencing light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move across the western Gulf today, the central Gulf tonight and into the eastern part of the basin by Sun morning, and then exit to the southeast of the Gulf Sun afternoon. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf ahead of the front and low pressure, reaching gale force over the north- central and eastern Gulf tonight into Sun. Looking ahead, marine conditions will further deteriorate as a deep low pressure system moves from the lower Mississippi Valley late today, and into the northeastern Gulf by early Mon. The deep low pressure will move into the Atlantic followed by strong to gale-force W to NW winds along with rough to very rough seas over much of the Gulf Sun into Tue. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for the Yucatan Channel. The latest scatterometer data shows light to gentle trades across the Caribbean, increasing to moderate speeds in the far NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 2-4 ft across the basin, with no significant convection noted on satellite. For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the front will support benign marine conditions through the afternoon. The pattern will start to change tonight as a cold front moves through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sun afternoon. Deep low pressure north of the area will support strong W to NW winds and rough to very rough seas following the front over the northwest Caribbean starting Sun night. Winds are forecast to reach gale force over the Yucatan Channel and the far northwest Caribbean late Mon with seas building as high as 18 ft. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front into the southwest Caribbean Tue into Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N43W to 17N55W. The gale warning for waters ahead of the cold front has expired, but scatterometer data indicates strong S winds continue ahead of the front. Seas 8-10 ft are north of 21N between 39W and 53W. Moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail in remaining waters. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move south of 30N and east of 75W, stall along 27N west of 55W Sun, then lift north Sun night ahead of a deep low pressure system moving through the northeast Gulf. SE winds will increase and seas will build off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas late Sun ahead of the low. The low pressure and an associated cold front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week, followed by NE winds to gale force and rough to very rough seas. $$ Mahoney