000 AXNT20 KNHC 031042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N45W, then continues SW, crossing the Leeward Islands into the NE Caribbean where it becomes a stationary front. A recent scatterometer pass indicates minimal gale force winds N of 28N and E of the front to about 42W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft within these winds. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by this morning. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A deep low pressure system will move from the central Plains to across the lower Mississippi Valley by late today, and through the northeast Gulf by early Mon. The associated cold front will move across the western Gulf today, the central Gulf tonight and into the eastern part of the basin by Sun morning. The cold front will exit to the southeast of the Gulf Sun afternoon. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf ahead of the front and low pressure, reaching gale force over the north-central and eastern Gulf tonight into Sun. Looking ahead, marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as the deep low pressure shifts into the Atlantic followed by strong to gale- force W to NW winds along with rough to very rough seas over much of the Gulf Sun into Tue. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern Liberia, to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W to 03N36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 21W and 31W. Similar convective activity is near 05N29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the north-central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Please, see the Special Features Section for more information. Recent scatterometer data and buoy observations indicate fresh to strong SE to S winds over the western Gulf, particularly from 19N to 26N and W of 92W. These winds are on increase ahead of the next cold front, forecast to enter the Gulf today. A weak ridge, with a 1014 mb high pressure located over N Florida, dominates the eastern half of Gulf region, generating gentle to moderate E to SE winds, with the exception of light and variable winds over the NE Gulf. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft over the E and central Gulf, and 4 to 7 ft over the western Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf and the coast waters of Texas due to the approaching cold front. For the forecast, a significant increase in winds and seas is expected across the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Mon as a deep low pressure and the associated cold front moves across the region. Strong to gale- force westerly winds will dominate most of the Gulf waters, reaching the Straits of Florida, the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean. Very rough seas, in the 12 to 18 ft range, will be associated with these winds. Please, see the Special Features Section for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean while a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the basin as a low pressure system persists N of the area. A stationary front is analyzed over the NE Caribbean, and runs from the Leeward Islands to just S of Haiti. Under this weather pattern, light to gentle winds are noted per scatterometer data over most of the Caribbean Sea, with the exception moderate trade winds near the coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Venezuela and near the ABC Islands. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the east and central Caribbean, and 1 to 2 ft over the NW Caribbean. Patches of low level moisture, with embedded showers are noted across the region. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front over the far northeast Caribbean will dissipate today. Weak high pressure north of the front will support relatively benign marine conditions into late today. The pattern will change Sun as a cold front moves through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sun afternoon. Deep low pressure north of the area will support strong W to NW winds and rough to very rough seas following the front over the northwest Caribbean starting Sun night. Winds are forecast to reach gale force over the Yucatan Channel and the far northwest Caribbean late Mon with seas building as high as 18 ft. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front into the southwest Caribbean Tue into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning remains in effect ahead of a cold front that extends from 31N45W to the Leeward Islands. Please, see the Special Features Section for more information. This front is associated with a gale center of 993 mb located near 35N50W. This system, combined with the front, is producing a large area of fresh to strong winds over the central Atlantic, covering mainly the waters N of 23N between 45W and 55W with seas of 10 to 14 ft. A band of mainly low clouds and possible showers is related to the front. Scattered moderate convection is N of 24N and E of the front to about 30W. A weak ridge, with a 1014 mb high pressure located over N Florida, follows the front. A second cold front, extending along 31N/32W and W of Bermuda is approaching the waters off NE Florida. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail cross the tropical Atlantic. Seas increase to 6 to 8 ft near the Leeward Islands due the presence of the front. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed E of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front reaching from 31N45W to the Leeward Islands will slowly shift east of the area through late today. Another cold front will move south of 30N and west of Bermuda this morning, then stall along 27N west of 55W Sun before lifting north Sun night ahead of a deep low pressure system moving through the northeast Gulf. SE winds will increase and seas will build off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas late Sun ahead of the low. The low pressure and an associated cold front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week, followed by NE winds to gale force and rough to very rough seas. $$ GR