000 AXNT20 KNHC 022350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from complex 994 mb low pressure east of Bermuda through 32N50W SW through 21N56W to the NE Caribbean near 16N66W where it then stalls to S Haiti. Scattered moderate convection continues to affect the region N of 22N between 30W and 47W. Ongoing near gale to gale-force W to NW winds behind the front and N of 26N, and within 300 nm ahead of the front will continue to affect the northern offshore zones through tonight as the front continues an eastward track. Seas currently 12 to 16 ft behind the front will gradually diminish below 12 ft through Sat morning. Winds will gradually decrease into Sat, as the low lifts NE and away of the central subtropical Atlantic waters. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southeast to south winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region late Sat. The front will move across the central Gulf Sat night, and across the eastern part of the basin on Sun. Winds ahead of the front are forecast to reach minimal gale force over the central Gulf Sat evening, and then the eastern Gulf Sat night through Sun morning, with seas building 8 to 12 ft. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A weak monsoon trough meanders inland W Africa. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 04N30W to 00N49W. No significant convection is observed. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Please, see the Special Features Section for more information. High pressure of 1016 mb is located over Mississippi coastal waters extending a ridge over the NE Gulf of Mexico and providing light to gentle variabl winds and slight seas E of 90W. Low pressure is building over the western half of the basin ahead of the next cold front. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the western Gulf is supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure over the north-central Gulf will shift east tonight ahead of a deep low pressure system that will move from the central Plains to across the lower Mississippi Valley by late Sat, and through the northeast Gulf by early Mon. An associated cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Sat, and exit to the southeast of the Gulf Sun afternoon. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf ahead of the front and low pressure, reaching gale force over the north-central and eastern Gulf Sat night into Sun. Looking ahead, marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as the deep low pressure shifts into the Atlantic followed strong to gale-force NW winds along with rough to very rough seas over much of the Gulf Sun into Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... With a frontal system moving across the NE Caribbean and weak high pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico, a weak pressure gradient reigns and support light to gentle variable winds across the basin, except for S America adjacent waters where trades are moderate to locally fresh. Seas are slight basin-wide, except for the NE Caribbean Atlantic passages where N large swell behind the aforementioned frontal system supports moderate seas to 7 ft. For the forecast, a stationary front over the far northeast Caribbean will dissipate through Sat. Weak high pressure north of the front will support relatively benign marine conditions into late Sat. The pattern will change Sun as a cold front moves through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sun afternoon. Looking ahead, deep low pressure north of the area will support strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas following the front over the northwest Caribbean starting Sun night. Winds may reach gale force late Mon over the Yucatan Channel and the far northwest Caribbean with seas building as high as 18 ft. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front into the southwest Caribbean Tue into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gale Warning in effect for portions of the SW N Atlantic waters through early tonight. A cold front extends from complex 994 mb low pressure east of Bermuda through 32N50W SW through 21N56W to the NE Caribbean near 16N66W where it then stalls to S Haiti. Gales are ongoing ahead and behind the front, affecting the north-central subtropical Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong NW winds associated with this system are affecting the NE offshores of the SW N Atlantic waters. However, large northerly swell is supporting 8 to 13 ft seas N of 19N and E of the southern Bahamas. A pair of surface trough are over the NE Florida inmediate offshore waters, supporting moderate winds between 68W and 79W. The remainder of the E subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge that supports gentle to moderate NE to E trades from the coast of W Africa to 36W along with moderate seas. In the tropical Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front reaching the northern Leeward Islands will slowly shift east of the area through late Sat. Another cold front will move south of 30N and west of Bermuda early Sat, then stall along 27N west of 55W Sun before lifting north Sun night ahead of a deep low pressure system moving through the northeast Gulf. SE winds will increase and seas will build off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas late Sun ahead of the low. Looking ahead, the low pressure and an associated cold front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week, followed by NE winds to gale force and rough to very rough seas. $$ Ramos