000 AXNT20 KNHC 022229 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from complex 996 mb low pressure east of Bermuda through 32N59W SW through 20N60W to the southern entrance to the Mona Passage near 17N68W to SW Haiti. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues to affect the region N of 23N from the front to 40W. Ongoing near gale to gale-force W to NW winds behind the front and N of 26.5N, and within 180 nm ahead of the front and N of 27N will continue to affect the offshore zones N of 24N through Fri as the front continues an eastward track. Seas currently 10 to 18 ft behind the front will increase to up to 20 ft tonight into Fri. Winds will fall below gale-force Fri night, with gradually decreasing winds and diminishing seas into Sat, as the low lifts NE and away from the area waters. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southeast to south winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region late Sat. The front will move across the central Gulf Sat night, and across the eastern part of the basin on Sun. Winds ahead of the front are forecast to reach minimal gale force over the central Gulf Sat evening, and then the eastern Gulf Sat night through Sun morning, with seas building 8 to 12 ft. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A weak monsoon trough meanders along the coastal states of the Gulf of Guinea to 04.5N00W to 03N06W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N16W to 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection is seen within 180 nm N of the ITCZ W of 17W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Please, see the Special Features Section for more information. High pressure of 1018 mb located over the NE Gulf just offshore of the entrance to Mobile Bay dominates the basin. Light and variable winds are noted under the influence of this system over the east and central Gulf while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are over the western Gulf W of 94W. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft E of 95W and 3 to 5 ft W of 95W. Abundant middle and high level cloudiness associated with a jetstream segment, with possible showers, covers the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida. For the forecast, weak high pressure over the north-central Gulf will shift east tonight ahead of a deep low pressure system that will move from the central Plains to across the lower Mississippi Valley by late Sat, and through the northeast Gulf by early Mon. An associated cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Sat, and exit to the southeast of the Gulf Sun afternoon. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf ahead of the front and low pressure, reaching gale force over the north-central and eastern Gulf Sat night into Sun. Looking ahead, marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as the deep low pressure shifts into the Atlantic followed strong to gale-force NW winds along with rough to very rough seas over much of the Gulf Sun into Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean while a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the basin, as low pressure moves eastward across the west-central Atlantic. A cold front has moved across the extreme NE Caribbean this morning and extends from the extreme northern Leeward Islands W-SW to the southern entrance to the Mona Passage, then hangs up along the terrain of SW Haiti. Under this weather pattern, gentle N winds are noted over the eastern Caribbean north of the front, and gentle NE to E winds are south of the front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail, become E to SE across the NW basin. with the exception of fresh trade winds near the coast of Colombia, in the lee of eastern Cuba, and between Haiti and Jamaica. Seas are 3 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft over the SW Caribbean, and 6 to 9 ft in the passages of the NE Caribbean and strong Atlantic swell is now reaching the area behind the front. Strong SW flow aloft is advecting tropical moisture from the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula across west and central Cuba into the Bahamas. Northerly low level wind flow is generating some cloudiness and light showers across the northern slopes of the interior mountains of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands. Patches of low level moisture, with isolated to scattered passing showers, are noted elsewhere, more concentrated over the SW part of the basin. For the forecast, a stationary front over the far northeast Caribbean will dissipate through Sat. Weak high pressure north of the front will support relatively benign marine conditions into late Sat. The pattern will change Sun as a cold front moves through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sun afternoon. Looking ahead, deep low pressure north of the area will support strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas following the front over the northwest Caribbean starting Sun night. Winds may reach gale force late Mon over the Yucatan Channel and the far northwest Caribbean with seas building as high as 18 ft. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front into the southwest Caribbean Tue into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gale Warning in effect for portions of the SW N Atlantic waters through today. A complex low center of 996 mb is located E of Bermuda near 33N57.5W, with a secondary 996 mb low near 30.5N60.5W. The associated cold front extends from near 32N59W SW through 20N60W to the Anegada Passage then passes just S of Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues to affect the region N of 23N from the front to 40W. Further S along the front, a band of mainly low clouds with embedded showers is along the front. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of gale-force southerly winds within 180 nm E of the front and N of 27N, while westerly gales on the S side of the low center are N of 26N between 53W and 62W. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are within the gale winds W of the front, and 8 to 11 ft E of the front. The low pressure and associated front are also producing a large area of fresh to strong winds that cover mainly the waters N of 22N between 45W and 65W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft. The remainder of the western Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure situated over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Another ridge dominates the remainder of the east and central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the tropical Atlantic. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed E of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front reaching the northern Leeward Islands will slowly shift east of the area through late Sat. Another cold front will move south of 30N and west of Bermuda early Sat, then stall along 27N west of 55W Sun before lifting north Sun night ahead of a deep low pressure system moving through the northeast Gulf. SE winds will increase and seas will build off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas late Sun ahead of the low. Looking ahead, the low pressure and an associated cold front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week, followed by NE winds to gale force and rough to very rough seas. $$ Ramos