000 AXNT20 KNHC 021734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from complex 996 mb low pressure east of Bermuda through 32N59W SW through 20N60W to the southern entrance to the Mona Passage near 17N68W to SW Haiti. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues to affect the region N of 23N from the front to 40W. Ongoing near gale to gale-force W to NW winds behind the front and N of 26.5N, and within 180 nm ahead of the front and N of 27N will continue to affect the offshore zones N of 24N through Fri as the front continues an eastward track. Seas currently 10 to 18 ft behind the front will increase to up to 20 ft tonight into Fri. Winds will fall below gale-force Fri night, with gradually decreasing winds and diminishing seas into Sat, as the low lifts NE and away from the area waters. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southeast to south winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region late Sat. The front will move across the central Gulf Sat night, and across the eastern part of the basin on Sun. Winds ahead of the front are forecast to reach minimal gale force over the central Gulf Sat evening, and then the eastern Gulf Sat night through Sun morning, with seas building 8 to 12 ft. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A weak monsoon trough meanders along the coastal states of the Gulf of Guinea to 04.5N00W to 03N06W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N16W to 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection is seen within 180 nm N of the ITCZ W of 17W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Please, see the Special Features Section for more information. High pressure of 1018 mb located over the NE Gulf just offshore of the entrance to Mobile Bay dominates the basin. Light and variable winds are noted under the influence of this system over the east and central Gulf while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are over the western Gulf W of 94W. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft E of 95W and 3 to 5 ft W of 95W. Abundant middle and high level cloudiness associated with a jetstream segment, with possible showers, covers the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida. For the forecast, high pressure over the region will shift E today. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the western Gulf tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region late Sat. The front will move across the central Gulf Sat evening, and across the eastern part of the basin through Sun morning. By Sun night, this cold front is expected to move E of the Gulf. On Sun, an associated low pressure system will move eastward across the N Gulf states bringing a very tight pressure gradient across the Gulf waters. W-NW to W gale-force winds and very high seas are expected across parts of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida Sun night and Mon. Seas may reach to 20 ft during this time across the south-central and southeast Gulf. The low pressure will cross Florida and move into the western Atlantic likely late on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean while a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the basin, as low pressure moves eastward across the west-central Atlantic. A cold front has moved across the extreme NE Caribbean this morning and extends from the extreme northern Leeward Islands W-SW to the southern entrance to the Mona Passage, then hangs up along the terrain of SW Haiti. Under this weather pattern, gentle N winds are noted over the eastern Caribbean north of the front, and gentle NE to E winds are south of the front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail, become E to SE across the NW basin. with the exception of fresh trade winds near the coast of Colombia, in the lee of eastern Cuba, and between Haiti and Jamaica. Seas are 3 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft over the SW Caribbean, and 6 to 9 ft in the passages of the NE Caribbean and strong Atlantic swell is now reaching the area behind the front. Strong SW flow aloft is advecting tropical moisture from the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula across west and central Cuba into the Bahamas. Northerly low level wind flow is generating some cloudiness and light showers across the northern slopes of the interior mountains of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands. Patches of low level moisture, with isolated to scattered passing showers, are noted elsewhere, more concentrated over the SW part of the basin. For the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to be relatively low through Sat, except for moderate to briefly large NW swell moving through the NE Caribbean Passages and into the basin. A new cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun evening, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W. Behind the front, gale force westerly winds and unusually high seas are expected across the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Mon and Mon night. Seas may reach as high as 18 ft in W-NW swell across the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Caribbean waters late Mon and Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gale Warning in effect for portions of the SW N Atlantic waters through today. A complex low center of 996 mb is located E of Bermuda near 33N57.5W, with a secondary 996 mb low near 30.5N60.5W. The associated cold front extends from near 32N59W SW through 20N60W to the Anegada Passage then passes just S of Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues to affect the region N of 23N from the front to 40W. Further S along the front, a band of mainly low clouds with embedded showers is along the front. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of gale-force southerly winds within 180 nm E of the front and N of 27N, while westerly gales on the S side of the low center are N of 26N between 53W and 62W. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are within the gale winds W of the front, and 8 to 11 ft E of the front. The low pressure and associated front are also producing a large area of fresh to strong winds that cover mainly the waters N of 22N between 45W and 65W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft. The remainder of the western Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure situated over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Another ridge dominates the remainder of the east and central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the tropical Atlantic. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed E of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure E of Bermuda will move eastward and just N of 31N today, before lifting NE away from the forecast waters tonight through Sat. Strong to gale force cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas associated with this broad low pressure will continue to affect the waters north of 24N and E of 65W today. Another cold front will move southeastward across the northern waters Fri night into Sat night, bringing fresh to strong west winds on both sides of the front north of 28N into Sun. Low pressure and a new frontal system will move across the northwest waters Mon through Tue night. Gale-force winds and large seas to 18 ft in N to NE swell are possible with this system. $$ Stripling