000 AXNT20 KNHC 012328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a low pressure just west of Bermuda from 29N61W SW to 23N65W to Haiti adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection continues to affect the region N of 26N from the front to 50W. Ongoing near gale to gale- force W to NW winds behind and ahead of the front will continue to affect the offshore zones N of 24N through Fri as the front continues an eastward track. Seas currently 12 to 14 ft will increase to up to 20 ft tonight into Fri. Winds will fall below gale-force Fri night, with gradually decreasing winds and diminishing seas into Sat. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 05N30W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09N east of 20W to the African coast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends from a 1024 mb high pressure centered over SE United States. This is leading to light to gentle, anticyclonic flow across the basin. Slight seas are present across the eastern Gulf, while smooth seas are prevalent across the western Gulf. Scattered weak convection is observed north of 21N and west of 91W. For the forecast, relatively quiet marine conditions are expected to change little through Fri. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the western Gulf Fri night, then shift E into Sun, in advance of a cold front. By Sun night, this cold front is expected to move east of the Gulf, with strong to possibly gale-force W to NW winds along with rough seas expanding across much of the basin Mon through Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are present off the coast of Colombia and in the southwest Caribbean, with mainly moderate NE winds and seas in the northwest Caribbean. Across the remainder of the basin, mostly gentle E winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh N winds will diminish offshore Nicaragua today. The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean will force fresh to locally strong NE winds offshore Colombia tonight. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be relatively low through Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun evening, preceded by fresh S winds to the west of 75W. Behind the front, strong to near gale force W winds will build across the Yucatan Channel and extreme northwest Caribbean Mon and Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale warning in effect for portions of Atlantic waters south of Bermuda through Fri. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N46W to 19N57W to near Puerto Rico and the northernmost Leeward Islands, with an attendant 1015 mb low along the trough axis near 26N48W. Ahead of the trough, north of 26N and east to 35W, scattered moderate convection is ongoing along with moderate to fresh S winds and moderate seas north of 22N. Behind the trough, scattered weak convection is observed north of 24N to 58W. Light to gentle SW winds increase to moderate westward of the trough axis to 57W and fresh to strong to 60W. Moderate to rough seas are noted in this area. Elsewhere east of 60W, moderate to locally strong trades and moderate to rough seas are prevalent south of 22N and gentle E winds and moderate seas north of 22N. The waters west of 60W are dominated by the low pressure and cold front that are detailed in the Special Features section. Outside of gale conditions, fresh to strong cyclonic winds dominate the waters north of 20N, west to 78W, with the remaining waters mainly in moderate to fresh winds. Seas are moderate to rough across this area. For the forecast, the above mentioned trough will dissipate today. Low pressure west of Bermuda will strengthen as it moves ESE along and just north of 31N through Fri, before lifting NE away from area waters. Strong to gale-force cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany this broad low pressure for waters north of 24N into Fri. Another cold front will move SW across northern waters Fri night into Sat night, bringing fresh to strong W winds on both sides of the front north of 28N into Sun. Low pressure and a new frontal system will move across the northwest waters Mon. $$ Ramos