000 AXNT20 KNHC 010005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Feb 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low pressure system located offshore The Carolinas will move E-SE along 30-32N on Fri, before lifting NE away from the area. Strong to gale-force cyclonic winds will accompany this low pressure for waters N of 24N late tonight into Fri. Peak seas are forecast to build to 12 to 18 ft north of 26N between 55W and 75W. Marine conditions will improve considerably Sat as a weak frontal system moves E across the region. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N30W and to 00N39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 10W and 18W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley extends a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and provides gentle to moderate NE to E winds W of 90W. Over the eastern half of the basin winds are moderate from the N to NW due to the passage of a cold front that at 2100 UTC extends from Englewood, Florida to 27N87W. Seas basin-wide are slight, except in the NE gulf where seas are moderate behind the front. For the forecast, quiescent marine conditions will prevail through Fri as high pressure dominates. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the western Gulf early Sat, then shift east into Sun, in advance of the next cold front. By Sun evening, this cold front is expected to move E of the Gulf, with strong to near gale-force W to NW winds expanding across much of the basin Sun afternoon through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean where the tail of a cold front is moving across central Cuba. These features support moderate northerly winds over the NW basin while a tighter pressure gradient in the SW Caribbean supports fresh to strong N to NE winds offshore Nicaragua and Colombia. Seas in the SW basin are 5 to 8 ft. The tail of a weakening cold front moves across central Puerto Rico SW to the southern Dominican Republic adjacent waters where it transitions to a remnant trough into the SW basin. A weaker pressure gradient over the E half of the Caribbean due to the passage of the front supports gentle to moderate winds over that region along with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will continue offshore of Nicaragua through Thu morning, behind a dissipating frontal trough. The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean will force fresh to locally strong NE winds during the late nights and early mornings north of Colombia through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be quiescent through Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun evening, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W. Strong to near gale-force westerly winds will build across the Yucatan Channel and extreme NW Caribbean late Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for details on an upcoming Gale Warning for portions of Atlantic waters S of Bermuda. A pair of cold fronts extends from the low pressure over The Carolinas adjacent waters into the SW N Atlantic waters. The leading cold front extends from 31N73W to central Cuba and the reinforcing front extends from 31N77W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to strong winds are ahead of the front while strong to near gale force W to NW winds are affecting the offshore waters N of 25N and W of 75W. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are associated with this pair of fronts. In the central Atlantic, another cold front extends from 31N46W SW across Puerto Rico into S Hispaniola adjacent waters. Surface high pressure anchored by a 1017 mb high is S of Bermuda and between this cold front and the leading cold front in the SW N Atlantic waters. Over the E subtropical Atlantic, surface ridging dominates along with gentle to moderate NE to E winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall tonight, then dissipate Thu. Otherwise weak high pressure and moderate to large NW swell will prevail across the remaining waters through Thu. Low pressure offshore North Carolina will move E-SE along 31N-33N through Fri, before lifting NE away from the area. Strong to gale-force cyclonic winds will accompany this broad low pressure for waters N of 24N tonight into Fri. Marine conditions will improve considerably Sat as a weak frontal system moves E across the region. Low pressure and a new frontal system will move across the NW waters late Mon. $$ Ramos