000 AXNT20 KNHC 301014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jan 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N61W to Haiti. Gale force southerly winds are developing ahead of this front N of 29N and W of 55W. These winds will prevail and progress as the front moves E, then diminish some tonight. Seas of 11 to 14 ft are expected within the gale force wind area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across West Africa and crosses into to Atlantic Ocean along the coast Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then terminates near 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01N30W to near the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N40W Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 22W and 27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 25N94W to the SW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, south of 1025 mb high pressure centered off southwest Louisiana. This pattern is supporting mainly gentle N winds across the basin, except light and variable over the far NW Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the SE Gulf and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Dry conditions are preventing any convection. For the forecast, a weak cold front will cross the NE Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wed bringing with it fresh NW winds. Aside from that, quiescent marine conditions will prevail into Fri night over the Gulf as high pressure dominates. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S winds are likely to develop over the Gulf Sat in advance of another cold front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from Haiti to the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft follow the front in the NW Caribbean. Ahead of the front, S of 16N, moderate to strong trades are ongoing with seas of 5 to 7 ft. N of 16N, over the north-central and NE Caribbean, mainly gentle winds prevail with seas of 2 to 4 ft. No significant convection is occurring. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds behind the cold front will continue through tonight, when the cold front will dissipate. A pressure gradient across the central Carribbean will force fresh to locally strong NE winds late nights and early mornings north of Colombia through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be quiescent into late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features Section for details on a Gale Warning over portions of Atlantic waters SE of Bermuda today. A cold front extends from 31N61W to Haiti. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 24N, along and E of the front, extending to 55W. Aside from the area of gales, strong S to SW winds are ongoing in the same area as the scattered convection. Behind the front, fresh to N winds are ongoing N of 25N and W to 75W. Elsewhere to the W of the front, mainly moderate N winds prevail. Seas N of 24N between 55W and 75W are 8 to 12 ft, with peak seas around 13 ft near 31N70W and 31N55W. For the remainder of Atlantic waters, a subtropical ridge associated with a 1025 mb high pressure center near 27N35W is dominating. Moderate to fresh trades dominate waters S of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft, highest E of the Windward Islands between 35W and 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, conditions will improve Wed when the aforementioned cold front moves east of our waters. A developing low will exit the Carolina coast tonight and move along our 31N border through Fri. Strong to near gale W winds are anticipated mainly north of 24N Wed through Fri. Conditions Sat and Sat night should have moderate or weaker winds for forecast waters. $$ Konarik