000
AXNT20 KNHC 281008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Cameron near 03N08E to 06N15W 
to 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-06N 
between 12W-20W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay
of Campeche. Convection associated with the front has diminished.
Between the front and the Florida Peninsula, patchy fog may be
occurring. Winds to the S and E of the cold front are mainly light
to gentle out of the SW, with fresh to strong NW to N winds behind
the front. Winds are stongest in the NE Gulf and in the Bay of
Campeche. The fresh winds are beginning to diminish offshore 
Texas. Seas are 3 ft or less ahead of the front and 5 to 8 ft
behind the front, except for seas of 8 to 11 ft in the central and
western Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, the cold front will move quickly SE and out of
the area by tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds behind the
front will gradually diminish tonight into Mon as high pressure
builds into the region. This will lead to quiescent conditions by
Mon night and continuing through much of next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high pressure centered
near 28N59W and lower pressure over Colombia is generating fresh
to strong trades across the central Caribbean and moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds across the central and SW basin. Seas in the 
central and SW basin are 7 to 11 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas in the E
basin. Over the NW Caribbean, winds are mainly gentle with seas of
3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high will shift eastward and
weaken tonight, decreasing the tradewinds and causing improved 
conditions through Tue night. A cold front will reach the Yucatan 
Channel this afternoon, followed by fresh to locally strong N 
winds in its wake across the NW Caribbean through Tue night. The 
front will gradually weaken as it slides E into the north Central 
Caribbean by Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive 1025 mb Bermuda High is centered near 28N59W with 
associated ridging extending westward to the NW Bahamas and ESE
just W of the Cabo Verde Islands. South of this ridging, moderate
to fresh trades dominate, with mainly light to gentle winds to
within and north of the ridging. However, W of 75W, SW inds have
increased to fresh to locally strong in advance of a cold front
that is moving E in the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. One surface
trough extends along 59W from 12N to 24N, and other is located
from 20N28W to 30N22W. Neither trough is producing much in the
way of sensible weather. A weak cold front, also void of
significant weather, has slipped S into area waters along 28N
between 35W and 45W. Seas within the ridging area generally 3 to 
6 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere. Peak seas of around 8 ft are 
being realized E of the Leeward Islands around 50W, near 30N40W, 
and along 31N N of the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, SW winds are increasing to fresh to
strong early this morning over waters N of the Bahamas ahead of a
cold front that will move offshore Florida today. This front will
move quickly E, reaching from just SE of Bermuda to the eastern 
tip of Cuba Mon night, 30N55W to Hispaniola Tue night, then slow 
down and weaken from around 25N55W to the Mona Passage Wed. Strong
W winds will prevail both ahead of and behind the front north of 
26N through Tue night. Low pressure is likely to develop off the 
Carolinas the middle of this week, bringing an increase in winds N
of the Bahamas Wed into Thu, with the strong winds shifting 
eastward N of 25N Thu night into Fri. 

$$
Konarik