000
AXNT20 KNHC 272320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 05.5N10W to
06N26W to 02N37W. Convection is limited. No monsoon trough is 
analyzed at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters, and extends from 
near Gulfport, Mississippi to the central Bay of Campeche. A wide
band of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the front. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted per scatterometer data 
in the wake of the front, with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh 
SE winds are ahead of it, with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except across 
the offshore waters of W Florida where seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail.
Cold air stratocumulus clouds follow the front while low clouds
are banked up against the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico,
particularly between Tampico and Veracruz. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will race eastward 
tonight, with scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms expected
ahead of it over the north-central and NE Gulf of Mexico. These 
thunderstorms may bring locally hazardous winds and seas. Behind 
the cold front, fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected until 
the front moves SE of the area Sun. A period of near gale force N
winds is likely offshore Veracruz, Mexico, tonight into Sun. In 
the wake of the front, high pressure will build into the region, 
leading to improving marine conditions conditions by early next 
week and continuing through much of next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure located
SE of Bermuda near 29N63W and lower pressure over Colombia 
supports a large area of fresh to strong winds over the central
Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 12 ft within these winds, with the
highest seas near the coast of Colombia based on altimeter data.
Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are over the 
eastern Caribbean while mainly moderate E to SE winds and seas in
the 4 to 6 ft range dominate the NW Caribbean, except in the lee
of Cuba where seas are 1 to 3 ft. Shallow moisture, embedded in
the trade wind flow, will move across the region producing
isolated to scattered passing showers. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high pressure
near Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through Sun, 
pulsing to near gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight. The
high pressure will shift eastward and weaken Sun night, decreasing
the tradewinds with improved conditions expected through Tue 
night. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun evening 
followed by fresh to locally strong N winds in its wake across 
the NW Caribbean through Tue night. The front will stall and 
weaken from E Cuba to E Honduras Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high pressure centered just SE of Bermuda is dominating
the SW Atlantic waters, supporting moderate to fresh easterlies 
S of 24N and W of 45W, along with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Moderate or 
less winds are N of 24N, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Farther east, 
a surface trough is analyzed from 31N25W to 22N30W to 11N49W. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the trough axis 
N of 25N. Fresh winds are noted on both sides of this boundary N
of 28N between 22W and 30W, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. E of this 
trough, a ridge covers the Canary and Madeira Islands. Seas of 8 
to 9 ft in N swell dominate the waters N of 22N and E of 45W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure located SE of
Bermuda will weaken and shift eastward ahead of a cold front 
moving off the coast of Florida Sun. SW winds will strengthen to 
fresh or strong tonight over the waters north of the Bahamas 
ahead of the front. The front will quickly move eastward, 
extending from near Bermuda to E Cuba Mon night, from 30N55W to 
Hispaniola Tue night, and stall from 25N55W to Hispaniola Wed 
where it will weaken. Strong NW winds will prevail both ahead of 
and behind the front north of 26N Sun through Tue night. Low pres
may develop off the Carolinas the middle of next week, bringing 
an increase in winds N of the Bahamas Wed night into Thu, with 
the strong winds shifting eastward N of 26N Thu.

$$
GR