231 AXNT20 KNHC 262330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Strong NE-to-E gale-force across the near and offshore waters of NW Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and again Sat night, as an Atlantic high pressure ridge remains N of the area. Very rough seas to 11 ft persist within about 240 nm off the coast of Colombia between 73W and 79W. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, rough seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail from the Greater Antilles southward between 65W Anegada Passage and 82W. Winds and seas will diminish basin-wide Sun through Mon as the high pressure ridge N of the region shifts E and weakens, and a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico and enters the NW Caribbean. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N to 05N08W to 03.5N38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm N of the ITCZ between 04W and 36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front meanders across the NW Gulf, from the central Louisiana coast, S-SW to the Mexican coast just S of Cabo Rojo. High pressure near Bermuda extends a ridge westward and across Florida and the northeastern Gulf. Midday satellite derived scatterometer winds showed strong E to SE winds of 20-30 kt across the central Gulf, from 24N to 27N, flowing into a cluster of strong convection over the central Gulf. Currently scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection persists across this area from 25N to 29N between 87.5W and 93W. Several ship observations of severe winds of 40 to 50 kt and higher were reported in recent hours, within this cluster of strong convection between 89.5W and 92.5, and where a Sentinel altimeter pass showed seas of 10-11 ft at 1830Z. Given these severe winds, seas may be even higher across this area. Since that time, an arching outflow boundary has developed and can be seen moving S to SW across this area in satellite imagery. Elsewhere a north- to- south oriented surface trough is along 94W from 23N southward. The stationary front over the far NW Gulf of Mexico will dissipate tonight. Areas of fog will prevail over the far northern Gulf to the east of this front into tonight. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Sat, then move SE through the basin, exiting the area Sun. Winds behind the front will generally be NW to N fresh to strong, except for near gale-force N winds near Veracruz Sat night into Sun. In the extended range, conditions across the Gulf are forecast to become quiescent Mon into Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning. The pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will force widespread strong to near gale trades, including over the Windward, Mona, and Anegada Passages, through Sat night. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight offshore Colombia. By Sun, as the Bermuda High shifts eastward and weakens, the trades will diminish, with improved conditions through Tue. Sun night, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel followed by fresh N winds in its wake across the NW Caribbean Mon into Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two surface troughs, and moderate to fresh winds, are from 16N northward between 32W and 42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along and E of these trough from 25N northward between 28W and 35W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 19N northward from 45W westward. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 31N65W. Fresh anticyclonic wind flow is from 25N southward from 50W westward, where seas area 7 to 9 ft. A strong Bermuda High will support fresh to strong trades mainly across the waters south of 23N tonight. As the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, the trades will diminish tonight through Sun. Beginning Sat night, SW winds will strengthen to fresh or strong over the waters north of the Bahamas ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should reach the Florida coast Sun afternoon and quickly move eastward, extending from near Bermuda to Hispaniola Mon night. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow behind the front north of 26N Sun through Mon night. $$ Stripling