000 AXNT20 KNHC 261758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jan 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning... NE-to-E gale-force winds will be pulsing, in the coastal waters of NW Colombia, during the next 24 hours to 48 hours or so. The gale-force winds will start around 27/0600 UTC, and they will end around 27/1200 UTC. Expect strong to near gale-force NE-to-E winds until 28/1200 UTC. Very rough seas are about 150 nm off the coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. Rough seas in general are elsewhere from the Greater Antilles southward between 65W Anegada Passage and 82W. Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, except for the slight seas that are in the coastal waters. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are within 270 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 79W. Strong NE-to-E winds are in the central one-third, in general. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate and fresh NE winds are from the coastal waters of Jamaica to Cuba and in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong E-to-SE winds are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh NE winds are in the SW corner of the area. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N, to 05N10W, 05N20W, 04N36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 08N from 31W eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is passing through the central coastal sections of Louisiana, to 25N96W, to the coast of Mexico that is along 97W from 20N to 21N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 210 nm of the Louisiana coast between 89W and 93W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 310 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf coast states from 94W eastward. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 93W/94W from 23N southward. Slight seas are in the Gulf of Mexico. The comparatively highest sea heights are from 24N to 25N, and in the north central Gulf. Moderate or slower winds cover most of the Gulf of Mexico. Some fresh winds are in the areas of the scattered moderate to strong precipitation. A stationary front over the far NW Gulf of Mexico will dissipate tonight. Areas of fog will prevail over the far northern Gulf to the east of this front into tonight. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Sat, then move SE through the basin, exiting the area Sun. Winds behind the front will generally be NW to N fresh to strong, except for near gale N winds near Veracruz Sat night into Sun. In the extended range, conditions across the Gulf are forecast to become quiescent Mon into Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the rest of the area. The pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will force widespread strong to near gale trades, including over the Windward, Mona, and Anegada Passages, through Sat night. Gales will pulse tonight offshore Colombia. By Sun, as the Bermuda High shifts eastward and weakens, the trades will diminish, with improved conditions through Tue. Sun night, a cold front should reach the Yucatan Channel followed by fresh N winds in its wake across the NW Caribbean Mon into Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three surface troughs, and moderate to fresh winds, are from 16N northward between 33W and 52W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N northward between 24W and 38W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 19N northward from 53W westward. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 31N65W. Fresh anticyclonic wind flow is from 25N southward from 60W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 25N southward between 45W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from 13N southward between 33W and 50W. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas have been from 15N northward from 40W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from 25N southward between 60W and 71W, and in much of the rest of the waters that are between 40W and 60W. Moderate seas cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A strong Bermuda High will support fresh to strong trades mainly across the waters south of 23N today. As the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, the trades will diminish tonight through Sun. Beginning Sat night, SW winds will strengthen to fresh or strong over the waters north of the Bahamas ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should reach the Florida coast Sun afternoon and quickly move eastward, extending from near Bermuda to Hispaniola Mon night. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow behind the front north of 26N Sun through Mon night. $$ mt/al