000 AXNT20 KNHC 261002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jan 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong 1030 mb high pressure system near Bermuda and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of northwestern Colombia through Fri night. Seas are forecast to peak around 14 ft during the period of gale force winds. Winds and seas will diminish this weekend. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone- Liberia border and continues SW to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 05N30W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 07N and east of 25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the central Louisiana coast to Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 25N and between the front and 86W, with locally strong winds in the more robust thunderstorms. S and E of the front, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. Behind the front, mainly gentle N winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present. Across cooler shelf waters N of 27N, patchy fog has developed. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will remain over the far NW Gulf of Mexico today, then dissipate tonight. Areas of fog will prevail over the far northern Gulf to the east of this front into tonight. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Sat, then spill SE through the basin, exiting the area Sun. Winds behind the front will generally be NW to N fresh to strong, except for near gale N winds near Veracruz Sat night into Sun. In the extended range, conditions across the Gulf are forecast to become quiescent Mon into Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea. A broad ridge over the NW Atlantic extends southward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to near gale-force easterly winds over much of the basin outside of the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-11 ft. A surface trough, the remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from Martinique to 72W along 15N. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will force widespread strong to near gale trades, including over the Windward, Mona, and Anegada Passages, through Sat night. Gales will pulse tonight offshore Colombia. By Sun, as the Bermuda High shifts eastward and weakens, the trades will diminish, with improved conditions through Tue. Sun night, a cold front should reach the Yucatan Channel followed by fresh N winds in its wake across the NW Caribbean Mon into Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb low pressure is centered near 30N35W, producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within about 150 nm of the center. A surface trough extends SW from this low to the Windward Islands. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong easterly winds south of 25N and west of 45W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the tropical Atlantic. Patchy fog has developed within about 90 nm of the NE Florida coast. For the forecast W of 55W, the strong Bermuda High will force fresh to strong trades mainly across the waters south of 23N today. As the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, the trades will diminish tonight through Sun. Beginning Sat night, SW winds will strengthen to fresh or strong over the waters north of the Bahamas ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should reach the Florida coast Sun afternoon and quickly move eastward, extending from near Bermuda to Hispaniola Mon night. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow behind the front north of 26N Sun through Mon night. $$ Konarik