000 AXNT20 KNHC 260457 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong 1030 mb high pressure system near Bermuda and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Seas are forecast to peak around 14 ft during the period of gale force winds. Winds and seas will diminish this weekend. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 05N30W and to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 07N and east of 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southern Louisiana to Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 25N and between the front and 87W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to gale-force southerly winds in association with the strongest convection. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found south of 25N and east of 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will gradually dissipate Fri. Patchy fog will occur over coastal waters of the northern Gulf to the east of this front. A second, stronger cold front will reach the Texas shore Fri night. It should move steadily southeastward, extending from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Sat night, and moving away from the Gulf Sun afternoon. Winds behind the front will generally be NW to N fresh to strong, except for near gale N winds near Veracruz Sat night into Sun. In the extended range, conditions across the Gulf are forecast to become quiescent on Mon into Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea. A broad ridge over the NW Atlantic extends southward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to near gale-force easterly winds over much of the basin outside of the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-11 ft. A surface trough, the remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from Martinique to 74W along 15N. Shallow pockets of moisture are seen north of the boundary producing isolated showers. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will force widespread strong to near gale trades, including over the Windward, Mona, and Anegada Passages, for the next two days. Late night and early morning NE gales will continue for tonight and Fri night just north of Colombia. By Sat as the Bermuda High shifts eastward and weakens, the trades will diminish into Tue. On Sun night, a cold front should reach the Yucatan Channel followed by fresh N winds in its wake across the NW Caribbean Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N33W and continues southward to a 1017 mb low pressure system near 28N34W and then southwestward to the Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 25N and between 30W and 39W. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure system near Bermuda. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong easterly winds south of 26N and west of 45W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, a strong Bermuda High will force fresh to strong trades mainly across the waters south of 23N into Fri. As the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, the trades will diminish Fri night through Sun. Beginning Sat night, SW winds will strengthen to fresh or strong over the waters north of the Bahamas ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should reach the Florida coast Sun afternoon and quickly move eastward, extending from near Bermuda to Hispaniola Mon night. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow behind the front north of 26N Sun into Mon night. $$ Delgado