000 AXNT20 KNHC 252328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong 1030 mb high pressure system in the NW Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Seas are forecast to peak at 14 to 16 ft during the period of gale force winds. Winds and seas will diminish this weekend. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over the Africa continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W southwestward to 05N21W to 02N32W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm off the coast of Liberia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging anchored by a 1030 mb high centered just S of Bermuda extends SW across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which is providing gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas E of 90W. Over the western basin, a former cold front has stalled from southern Louisiana SW to just S of Tampico, Mexico. Ahead of the front, winds are light to gentle and W of the front winds are northerly and moderate along the E Mexico offshore waters. Upper level diffluent flow and moisture inflow from the Caribbean is firing up heavy showers and tstms over the north-central Gulf waters where gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are likely. For the forecast, the front over the W Gulf waters will move slowly eastward before becoming stationary tonight and dissipating on Fri. A second, stronger cold front will reach the Texas shore Fri night. It should move steadily southeastward, extending from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Sat night, and moving away from the Gulf Sun afternoon. Winds behind the front will generally be NW to N fresh to strong, except for near gale N winds near Veracruz on Sun. In the extended range, conditions across the Gulf are likely to become quiescent on Mon and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning for the SW Caribbean. High pressure of 1030 mb centered just S of Bermuda extends a ridge southward into the northern Caribbean Sea. The associated gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the E extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough over Colombia continues to support mainly strong to near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean where recent altimeter data indicate wave heights peaking in the 13 fts. Winds are fresh to strong in the E and SW basin with seas in the 8-11 ft range while moderate to fresh winds dominate the NW waters, except for strong winds in the western Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will force widespread strong to near gale trades - including over the Windward, Mona, and Anegada Passages - for the next two days. Late night/early morning NE gales will continue for tonight and Fri night just north of Colombia. By Sat as the Bermuda High shifts eastward and weakens, the trades will diminish into Tue. On Sun night, a cold front should reach the Yucatan Channel followed by fresh N winds in its wake across the NW Caribbean on Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda high anchored by a 1030 mb high just S of the Island extends a surface ridge broadly across the entire subtropical Atlantic waters. Over the SW waters, N of 26N, winds are mainly gentle to moderate with seas to 7 ft. However, S of 26N fresh to strong trades prevails with rough 8-10 ft seas, including the approaches to the Windward Passage. In the NE Atlantic, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures near the coast of NW Africa sustain moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Seas are 5-8 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a strong Bermuda High will force strong trades mainly across the waters south of 23N tonight. As the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, the trades will diminish Fri into Sun. Beginning Sat night, SW winds will strengthen to fresh or strong over the waters north of the Bahamas ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should reach the Florida coast Sun afternoon and quickly move eastward, extending from near Bermuda to Hispaniola Mon night. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow behind the front north of 26N Sun and Mon. $$ Ramos