000 AXNT20 KNHC 240420 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jan 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the NW Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Gale force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening and Wednesday evening. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured 34-37 kt winds in the offshore waters of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are forecast to peak at 14 to 17 ft offshore NW Colombia and 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela during the period of gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the items above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N26W. The ITCZ extends from 03N26W to 01N37W and to 02N50W. No deep convection is observed along the monsoon trough or ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An expansive subtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic extends into the Gulf of Mexico. No deep convection is noted across the basin. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the western Gulf result in fresh to strong SE winds in the eastern Gulf waters, especially east of 90W. The strongest winds are occurring in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft, except for 4-7 ft in the NE Gulf. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure east of the area and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico will continue to support fresh SE winds across most of the Gulf through Wed. Winds will diminish a bit by late Wed before a weak cold front moves into the NW Gulf late Wed night. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico late Thu before stalling. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf late Fri night, extend from SE louisiana to Tampico Sat morning, and from Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun morning. Fresh NW to N winds will follow this front across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong winds in the SW Gulf. Dense marine fog is expected within about 30 nm of the coast from Mobile, ALabama to Brownsville,Texas through Wed morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning. The 1036 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends southward into the Caribbean Sea. No deep convection is seen in the basin, however, pockets of low-level moisture travel westward in the trade winds and produce isolated, weak showers. Outside of the Gale Warning area in the south-central Caribbean, the strong pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to near gale-force easterly winds across much of the Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale-force winds offshore southern Haiti. Rough to very rough seas are prevalent in the eastern and central Caribbean, while moderate seas are found in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will lead to a continuation of strong trade winds and rough seas over most of the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras, through at least Thu. Pulsing gale conditions are forecast during the nighttime through the morning hours near the coast of Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Gale conditions are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening and Wed evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 21N54W, then it transitions into a stationary front to eastern Cuba. A few showers are evident near the frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the strong high pressure in the NW Atlantic and the frontal boundary result in fresh to strong anticyclonic winds behind the frontal boundary and the remainder of the SW North Atlantic. Seas north of the frontal boundary are 8-12 ft. An exception occurs closer to the expansive ridge, mainly north of 29N and between 45W and 70W, where moderate or weaker winds and 4-8 ft seas prevail. Broad ridging dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic, resulting in fresh to locally strong easterly winds south of the aforementioned front and west of 50W. Seas are 8-11 ft in these waters. Farther east, fresh to locally strong easterly winds are present north of 15N and east of 27W. Seas are 5-8 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will sink southward tonight into Wed reaching the NE Caribbean while weakening. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will continue to bring strong trade winds and rough seas mainly across the waters S of 25N through Wed night. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease toward the end of the week as the high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, the next cold front should emerge off the coast of NE Florida by Sun. $$ Delgado