000 AXNT20 KNHC 231803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of northwestern Colombia every night through Fri night. Gale force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening and Wednesday evening. Seas are forecast to peak at 14 to 17 ft offshore northwestern Colombia and 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela during the period of gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the items above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Africa coast near the Sierra Leone-Liberia border, then extends southwestward to 04N17W. An ITCZ continues westward from 04N17W through 02N25W to 02N37W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near these features from 01N to 05N between 10W and 19W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A robust surface trough running northeastward from the central Gulf to the northeastern Gulf is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 22N between 83W and 90W. A weak warm front stretches eastward from a 1012 mb low over southern Texas to south of New Orleans. Widely scattered showers are occurring near and up to 60 nm north of this feature. A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a strong 1036 mb high pressure off the Carolinas across central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft are present at the eastern Gulf. Gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, expect fresh to strong winds and thunderstorms to persist at the eastern Gulf through today as the trough drifts northeastward. As the trough weakens tonight, winds and seas will steadily subside. Dense marine fog is possible near the Texas and Louisiana coasts through Wed morning. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico will sustain fresh SE winds across most of the Gulf through Wed. Winds will diminish a bit by late Wed before a weak cold front moves into the northwestern Gulf toward the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning. A stationary front reaches west-northwestward from north of Puerto Rico across northern Hispaniola to central Cuba. Patchy showers are seen over Cuba, Hispaniola and nearby Caribbean waters, including the Windward Passage. Otherwise, a strong 1036 mb high near Bermuda continues to channel easterly trade winds across the entire Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are producing widely scattered showers across the central and eastern basin. Outside of the Gale Waring areas, fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE to E winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft dominate the eastern, central and southwestern basin. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and 8 to 10 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin, including the Windward Passage. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across much of the basin will persist through at least Thursday. However, strong winds in the lee of Cuba and Yucatan Channel will diminish to fresh this afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the Azores across 31N37W to north of Puerto Rico at 20N66W, then continues west-northwestward as a stationary front across northern Hispaniola to central Cuba. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 100 nm northwest of the cold front. Patchy showers are found near and up to 60 nm north of the stationary front. The combination of an upper-level low near 21N25W and a couple of surface troughs nearby is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 13N to 23N between 18W and 29W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Another surface trough embedded within the trades is causing widely scattered showers from 02N to 09N between 40W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate northerly swell are noted north of 27N between 50W and 70W. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to ESE winds and 9 to 12 ft seas exist north of 20N between the cold front and Georgia-Florida coast. Farther east, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in moderate NW swell are found north of 20N between 25W and the cold front/45W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in moderate NW swell are present north of 05N between the Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen between 25W and 50W. Fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted from 07N to 20N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle with locally moderate NE to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will remain nearly stationary today, then sink southward tonight into Wednesday, reaching the northeastern Caribbean while weakening. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will continue to bring strong trade winds and rough seas mainly across the waters south of 25N through Wed night. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease toward Friday as the high pressure weakens. $$ Chan