000 AXNT20 KNHC 231029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jan 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of NW Colombia every night through Fri night. Gale force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela again this evening. Seas are forecast to peak near 14 to 16 ft offshore NW Colombia and 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela during the period of gale force winds. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate a large area of strong to gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean while an altimeter pass provides observations of seas in the 12 to 16 ft range within these wind speeds. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the items above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07.5N12W and continues southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 02N35W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 05N between 10W and 16W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong 1037 mb high pressure system centered just east of the Outer Banks extends a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico sustains fresh to strong E to SE winds across most of the basin. Seas are 8 to 12 ft east of 90W, and 5 to 8 ft W of 90W. A surface trough is analyzed from 27N87W to 20N91W. An area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the trough. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. An upper-level trough located over the western Gulf supports this convective activity. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure east of the area and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico will lead to a continuation of fresh to strong E to SE winds across most of the Gulf through at least tonight. A cluster of thunderstorms near a sharp surface trough is likely to affect portions of the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico today, bringing strong to near gale force winds and rough seas. Winds will diminish a bit by late Wed before a weak cold front moves into the NW Gulf toward the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. A stationary front extends from Hispaniola to near the Cayman Islands, supporting a few showers across the nearby islands and surrounding waters. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted elsewhere producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to strong trade winds across the most of the Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the central Caribbean are 10 to 16 ft, with the highest seas near the coast of Colombia. Seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail elsewhere, with the exception of 9 to 11 ft in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will lead to a continuation of strong trade winds and rough seas over most of the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras, through at least Thu. Pulsing gale conditions are forecast during the nighttime through the morning hours near the coast of Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Gale conditions are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela again this evening. The stationary front will gradually dissipate, allowing strong winds in the NW Caribbean and lee of Cuba to diminish a bit this afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N40W and continues southwestward to 21N60W, where it becomes a stationary front to Hispaniola. A strong high pressure of 1037 mb located between Bermuda and the Outer Banks follows the front. The pressure gradient between this system and the front is producing a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly S of 27N and W of 55W with seas of 8 to 11 ft outside of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong Nw to N winds are also noted in the wake of the front E of 55W with seas of 9 to 14 ft based on altimeter data. Seas of 7 to 9 ft, in mixed NE and NW swell, prevail across most of the waters SE of the front and W of 35W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast discussion is dominated by another strong high pressure of 1038 mb located NE of the Madeira Islands near 37N13W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted N of 24N and E of 20W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the tropical Atlantic between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 8 to 12 ft N of the Cabo Verde Islands and E of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will remain nearly stationary along 20N today, then sink southward tonight into Wed reaching the NE Caribbean while weakening. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will continue to bring strong trade winds and rough seas mainly across the waters S of 25N through Wed night. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease toward the end of the work-week as the high pressure weakens. $$ GR