000 AXNT20 KNHC 230435 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jan 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing strong to gale-force winds off the coast of NW Colombia every night through Fri night. Gale force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Tuesday night. Seas are forecast to peak near 14 to 17 ft offshore from NW Colombia and 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela during the period of gale force winds. Conditions will improve next weekend. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the items above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 07N11W and continues southwestward to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N21W to 02N35W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong 1038 mb high pressure system centered just east of the Outer Banks dominates the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico sustain fresh to strong easterly winds across most of the basin. Seas of 8-11 ft are found east of 90W, with the highest seas occurring in the Loop Current. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail west of 90W. An upper level trough located over the western Gulf supports scattered moderate convection over the central Gulf, especially between 85W and 92W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure east of the area and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico will lead to a continuation of fresh to strong SE winds across most of the Gulf through at least Tue night. A cluster of thunderstorms near a sharp surface trough is likely to affect portions of the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Tue, bringing strong to near-gale force winds. Winds will diminish a bit by late Wed before a weak cold front moves into the NW Gulf toward the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. A stationary front extends from Hispaniola to the eastern Cayman Islands, supporting a few showers across the nearby islands and surrounding waters. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea is dominated by a robust high pressure system located well north of the islands. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the remainder of the Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the central Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between unusually strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will lead to a continuation of strong trade winds and rough seas over most of the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras, through at least Thu. Pulsing gale conditions are forecast during the nighttime through the morning hours near the coast of Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Gale conditions are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening and again Tue evening. A stationary front currently extending from northern Haiti to 19N87W will gradually dissipate, allowing strong winds in the NW Caribbean and lee of Cuba to diminish a bit Tue afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the north-central tropical Atlantic waters near 31N41W and continues southwestward to 22N61W, becoming a stationary front to Hispaniola. Fresh to strong anticyclonic winds and seas of 6-12 ft are evident behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds occurring east of the Bahamas. The highest seas are found east of the Bahamas and north of 28N and east of 55W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by two strong high pressure systems, one positioned east of Cape Hatteras and another in the Iberian peninsula. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted south of 20N and west of 45W. Similarly, fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 8-11 ft are present north of 20N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will remain nearly stationary along 20N on Tue, then sink southward Tue night into Wed reaching the NE Caribbean while weakening. Unusually strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will bring a continuation of strong trade winds and rough seas through Tue night or Wed to the southern waters, south of 25N. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease during the second half of the week. $$ Delgado