548 AXNT20 KNHC 220004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure moving off the SE United States coast and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia every night through Thu night. Seas currently 8-10 ft will build to 11-16 ft by Tue and remain within this range through Fri. Gales are also forecast in the Gulf of Venezuela Mon night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 03N33W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 10N between 13W and 26W, and from 02N to 06N between 27N and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... The associated ridging of strong high pressure centered over the SE United States dominates the Gulf region and is generating fresh to strong NE to E winds across the eastern half of the basin and E to SE winds of the same speeds W of 90W. Seas are 5-7 ft basin- wide, except rough seas to 10 ft over the Texas offshore waters, western Bay of Campeche, the approaches of the the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through at least Tue supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas. The area of high pressure will then move eastward, veering winds over the Gulf waters. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf toward the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to central Belize. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are behind the front across the NW Caribbean as indicated per recent altimeter data. Fresh to near gale-force trades and rough seas to 10 ft are ongoing in the central and SW basin, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the E Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually weaken. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevail in the wake of the front. Strong high pressure moving eastward from the SE United States into the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over most of the basin, including the Windward Passage through at least mid-week. Pulsing gale conditions and rough seas are forecast at night near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N55W to 24N67W where it transitions to a stationary front that reaches eastern Cuba. Surface ridging dominates the remainder SW N Atlantic waters W of the front as well as central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. The associated pressure gradient between the front and both ridges supports fresh to strong northerlies and rough seas to 15 ft behind the front, and fresh to strong SW winds to 47W and N of 25N ahead of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 12 are in the E subtropical waters while trades have diminished to moderate to fresh over the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will gradually weaken early this week. Strong high pressure building in the wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and seas for the early to middle part of next week. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease the second half of the week. $$ Ramos