000 AXNT20 KNHC 211728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jan 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure moving off the SE United States coast and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia every night through Thu night. Seas currently 8-9 ft will build to 11-16 ft by Tue and remain within this range through Fri. Gales are also forecast in the Gulf of Venezuela Mon night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 17W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... The previous Gale Warning for the SW Gulf of Mexico has expired. Strong high pressure over the SE United States dominates the Gulf region and is generating fresh NE to E winds across most of the basin, with strong E winds impacting the NE Gulf, Yucatan Channel, and SE Gulf within 90 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are 4-7 ft north of 25N, and 7-9 ft south of 25N. For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through at least Tue supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas. As the high pressure moves eastward, winds will veer to the E and SE on Mon, and to SE and S on Tue, becoming moderate south to southwest in the far NW part of the Gulf Wed and Wed night as the next frontal system approaches eastern Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to central Belize. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted in the wake of the front across the NW Caribbean, with seas to locally 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel. In the SW and central Caribbean, recent scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong trades with 4-7 ft seas. Off the coast of Colombia, seas range from 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the E Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually weaken. Strong high pressure moving eastward from the SE United States into the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over most of the basin, including the Windward Passage through at least mid- week. Pulsing gale conditions and rough seas are forecast at night near the coast of Colombia through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong NW winds are noted per scatterometer data behind the front and N of 29N. Elsewhere west of the front N winds are moderate to fresh. Seas along the northern TAFB waters are elevated as a result of cyclones north of the area. North of 27N between 45W and 77W, seas are greater than 8 ft with peak seas to 14 ft near 31N65W. The remainder of the Atlantic is influenced by 1034 mb Azores high pressure. Along the ridge axis, from 20N to 27N between 37W and 65W, S winds are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas. North of 20N east of 37W, fresh to strong NE winds prevail according to scatterometer data, with seas 8-12 ft. The scatterometer also detected NE winds to near-gale force speeds within 120 nm of the coast of southern Morocco. South of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, trades are fresh to locally strong with 8-10 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will gradually weaken early this week. Strong high pressure building in the wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and seas for the early to middle part of next week. $$ Mahoney