000 AXNT20 KNHC 210434 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jan 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front currently extends from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the Bay of Campeche. Gale force N to NW winds are still ongoing off the coast of Veracruz in the SW Gulf with rough seas to 14 ft. Gales are forecast to Sun morning as the front pushes eastward away from the basin. However, fresh to strong winds will prevail over most of the basin through Tue as a new cold front approaches from the northwest. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic tonight through Sun night. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over South America will cause gale-force northeast to east winds Sun night in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are forecast to build to 9-13 ft. Winds are expected to diminish to near gale-force speeds by Mon morning, however seas will remain unchanged ranging from 9-13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 04N31W to 03N46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 21W and 38W. In addition, a cluster of strong convection is depicted from 04N to 08N between 14.5W and 19.5W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for the SW Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is SE of the area crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and the far eastern Bay of Campeche. The front is followed by fresh to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft, except for gale-force NW winds and seas to 14 ft in the offshore waters of Veracruz, Mexico. For the forecast, a cold front is SE of the area crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and the far eastern Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds and very rough seas will prevail in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through tonight. Fresh to near gale force winds and rough seas are noted elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front, will support fresh to strong southeast to south winds over most of the basin through early next week, except becoming moderate south to southwest in the far NW part of the Gulf Wed and Wed night as the next frontal system approaches eastern Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for the south-central Caribbean. A cold front extends from central Cuba to near Playa del Carmen, Mexico. Moderate to fresh trades are ongoing over the NE and north-central Caribbean while fresh to strong winds prevail in the SE and portions of the SW basin. Seas over the eastern and central Caribbean are in the 5-8 ft range. In the NW basin, winds are gentle to moderate from the NE, increasing to fresh to strong in the approaches of the Yucatan Channel due to the cold front. Seas in this region are 5-7 ft but will rapidly build as the front continues to move eastward. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the south central Caribbean. A cold front extending over the northwestern Caribbean will become stationary from near the Windward Passage to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow behind this front. Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next week, increasing coverage of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas across the central and eastern basin. Pulsing gale conditions are possible at night near the coast of Colombia Sun night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N60W to central Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 10 ft are ahead and behind the front. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of a surface ridge that is anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 30N33.5W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over NW Africa continue to support fresh to strong NE winds N of 20N E of 33W and over the tropical Atlantic waters. Seas in these regions are in the 8-10 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N60W to central Cuba. The front will reach from near 29N55W to near the Windward Passage by late Sun night, then become stationary Mon over the extreme southern waters where it will gradually weaken through late Tue. Strong high pressure building in the wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and seas for the early to middle part of next week. $$ KRV