982 AXNT20 KNHC 202355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jan 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front currently extends from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the Bay of Campeche. Gale force N to NW winds are still ongoing off the coast of Veracruz in the SW Gulf with rough seas to 13 ft. Gales are forecast to end this evening as the front pushes eastward away from the basin. However, fresh to strong winds will prevail over most of the basin through Tue as a new cold front approaches from the northwest. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic tonight through Sun night. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over South America will cause gale-force northeast to east winds Sun night in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are forecast to build to 9-13 ft. Winds are expected to diminish to near gale-force speeds by Mon morning, however seas will remain unchanged ranging from 9-13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 02N33W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 10N between 12W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for the SW Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the central Bay of Campeche. The front is followed by fresh to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft, except for gale-force NW winds and seas to 13 ft in the offshore waters of Veracruz, Mexico. For the forecast, the front will shift away of the area and winds will diminish below gale-force in the Veracruz offshore waters this evening. Strong high pressure will continue to build in the wake of the front, supporting fresh to strong southeast to south winds over most of the basin through early next week, except becoming moderate south to southwest in the far NW part of the Gulf Wed and Wed night as the next frontal system approaches eastern Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are ongoing over the NE and north-central Caribbean while fresh to strong winds prevail in the SE and portions of the SW basin. Seas over the eastern and central Caribbean are in the 5-7 ft range. In the NW basin, winds are gentle to moderate from the NE, increasing to fresh to strong in the approaches of the Yucatan Channel as a strong cold front approaches. Seas in this region are 3-4 ft but will rapidly build as the front continues to move eastward. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the south-central Caribbean. The aforementioned cold front will move into the northwestern Caribbean this evening, then become stationary from near the Windward Passage to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow behind this front. Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next week, increasing coverage of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas across the central and eastern basin. Pulsing gale conditions are possible at night near the coast of Colombia Sun night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold fronts extends from 31N60W SW across Andros Island to W Cuba and into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 29N55W to near the Windward Passage by late Sun night, then become stationary Mon over the extreme southern waters where it will gradually weaken through late Tue. Strong high pressure building in the wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and for the early to middle part of next week. $$ Ramos