000 AXNT20 KNHC 201034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jan 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will continue to move across the Gulf waters through the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will reach gale-force speeds Offshore Veracruz today and tonight. Seas with these winds are forecast to build to 8-12 ft, with highest seas peaking tonight offshore Veracruz. These conditions will subside Sun as high pressure builds over the basin in the wake of the front. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: An area of broad strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic starting tonight and into Sun night. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures to the south in Colombia will lead to gale force northeast to east winds Sun night in the southwestern part of the sea, primarily south of 13N between 74W- 76W. Seas there are forecast to build to the range of 9-13 ft. These winds are expected to diminish to just below gale force by around 12Z on Mon, however, seas will remain nearly unchanged at that time. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N30W to 03N37W and to 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 23W-28W, between 34W-38W and within 60 nm of the trough between 14W-18W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a Gale Warning. The cold front mentioned in the Special Features extends from the Florida Keys to 22N89W and to 21N95W, where it transitions to a stationary front to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Abundant moisture continues to stream northeastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean, which is supporting areas of rain and scattered showers over some locations of the central and western sections of the Gulf. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are behind the front along with seas to 8 ft. Strong to near gale force winds are in the far western part of the west-central Gulf south of 24N and west of 95W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. Winds ahead of the front in the far southeastern Gulf are generally gentle to moderate from the northeast. Seas there are 4-5 ft in southeast to south swell. For the forecast, the above described cold front will shift southeast of the area this afternoon. Fresh to near gale force winds and rough seas will follow behind the front. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz today and tonight. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting fresh to strong southeast to south winds over most of the basin through early next week, except becoming moderate south to southwest in the far NW part of the Gulf Wed and Wed night as the next frontal system approaches eastern Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The western periphery of broad high pressure that is over the central Atlantic reaches west-southwest to near 65W. The pressure difference between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in South America is bringing moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and southern Caribbean sections. Fresh to strong trade winds are in the central part of the sea, with the strongest of the winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 8-9 ft in the region of strongest winds. In the northwestern part of the Caribbean winds are light to gentle with seas generally around 3-6 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the south central Caribbean and east of the Lesser Antilles today. A cold front that is approaching western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel will move into the northwestern Caribbean today, then become stationary from near the Windward Passage to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow behind this front. Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next week. This will tighten the gradient allowing for increasing coverage of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas across the central and eastern basin. Pulsing gale conditions are possible at night near the coast of Colombia Sun night through Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N70W to 27N77W and to the Florida Keys. To its east, another cold front is analyzed from near 31N62W to 26N71W, where it begins to dissipate to central Cuba near 22N78W. Overnight ASCAT data passes depict fresh to strong south to southwest winds ahead of the second mentioned cold front north of 29N and east to 58W, and fresh to strong west to northwest winds behind the first mentioned cold front. These winds extend westward to 81W and are north of about 29N. Seas of 8-9 ft are east of the cold front that extends from 31N62W to 26N71W and higher seas of 8-11 ft are west of the cold front that extends from 31N70W to 27N77W and to the Florida Keys. A 1028 mb high center is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic near 29N35W. High pressure ridging covers the area north of about 14N and east of 58W. A rather tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure found in northwest Africa is supporting fresh to strong north to northeast winds and rough seas over the waters north of 18N and east of 22W to along the coast of Africa. Similar winds and seas are found in the tropics also due to a tight pressure gradient between the ridge and the lower pressure that is found there. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 29N55W to 24N65W and to near NW Haiti and the Windward Passage by late Sun night, then become entirely stationary Mon over the extreme southern waters. It will gradually weaken through late Tue. Strong high pressure building in the wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and for the early to middle part of next week. $$ Aguirre