000 AXNT20 KNHC 200515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jan 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will continue to move across the Gulf waters through the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will reach gale-force speeds in the far west part of the central Gulf waters offshore Tampico tonight and offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Seas with these winds are forecast to build to 8-12 ft, with highest seas peaking on Sat night offshore Veracruz. These conditions will subside Sun as high pressure builds over the basin in the wake of the front. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 07N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N29W to 0.5N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02.5N to 06N between 13W and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a Gale Warning. The cold front mentioned in the Special Features extends from Fort Myers, Florida to 23N90W and to near Tampico, Mexico. Moisture continues to stream NE from the E Pacific waters, which is supporting scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms basin-wide. Fresh to strong N to NE follows the front with rough seas to 8 ft already developed over the NW Gulf waters. Winds ahead of the front, over the SE basin, are light to gentle with slight seas. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from the Straits of Florida to the Bay of Campeche by early Sat, then shift southeast of the area by late Sat. Fresh to near gale winds and rough seas will follow behind the front. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the far west central Gulf near Tampico tonight and in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting fresh to strong southeast to south winds over most of the basin through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1029 mb surface high pressure over the central subtropical waters continues to extend a ridge towards the northern Caribbean waters. This is generating a tight pressure gradient against low pressure over Colombia. This is resulting in the continuation of moderate to fresh trades over the E and SW Caribbean and fresh to strong winds over the central basin, being the strongest winds in the offshores of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the region of strongest winds. Over the NW Caribbean winds are light to gentle with seas 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the south central Caribbean tonight. Fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front will move into the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, then become stationary from near the Windward Passage to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow behind this front. Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next week, increasing coverage of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas across the central and eastern basin. Pulsing gale conditions are possible at night near the coast of Colombia Sun night through Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N67W to western Cuba. A second cold front extends from 31N73W to Stuart, Florida. A stationary dissipating front extends from 31N48W to 27N67W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas to 10 ft follow the second front and is affecting the waters N of 29N. Ahead of the leading front, winds are moderate to fresh from the SW with seas to 8 ft N of 29N. A 1028 mb high is ahead of the stationary front and is centered near 28N35W. The pressure gradient between a cold front over NW Africa and the ridge is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the NE Atlantic subtropical waters. Similar winds and seas are found in the tropics due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and the lower pressure across the area. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N73W to Stuart, Florida will move across the northern and central waters through late Sat, with fresh to strong winds on either side of the front. Another cold front offshore northern Florida is forecast to reach the far southern waters by late Sun and become stationary. Strong high pressure building in the wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and for the early to middle part of next week. $$ KRV