000
AXNT20 KNHC 200007
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will continue
to move across the Gulf waters through the weekend. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds behind the front will reach gale-force 
speeds in the far west part of the central Gulf waters offshore 
Tampico tonight and offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Seas with
these winds are forecast to build to 8-12 ft, with highest seas 
peaking on Sat night offshore Veracruz. These conditions will 
subside Sun as high pressure builds over the basin in the wake of 
the front.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 07N16W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N30W to 02S42W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 20W and
45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a 
Gale Warning.

The cold front mentioned in the Special Features extends from just
S of Tampa Bay to the central Gulf SW to just N of Tampico.
Moisture continues to stream NE from the E Pacific waters, which
is supporting scattered to isolated showers basin-wide. Fresh to 
strong N to NE follows the front with rough seas to 9 ft already
developed over the NW gulf waters. Winds ahead of the front, over
the SE basin, are light to gentle with slight seas. 

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Straits of 
Florida to the Bay of Campeche by early Sat and southeast of the 
area by late Sat. Fresh to near gale winds and rough seas will 
follow behind the front. Gale force winds and very rough seas are 
expected in the far west central Gulf near Tampico tonight and in 
the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Strong high 
pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting fresh to 
strong southeast to south winds over most of the basin through 
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface high pressure over the central subtropical waters
continues to extend a ridge towards the northern Caribbean waters.
This is generating a tight pressure gradient against low pressure
over Colombia. This is resulting in the continuation of moderate
to fresh trades over the E and SW Caribbean and fresh to strong
winds over the central basin, being the strongest winds in the
offshores of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the
region of strongest winds.  

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
prevail across the south-central Caribbean though tonight. Fresh 
to strong trades with moderate to rough seas will prevail east of 
the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front will move into the 
northwestern Caribbean on Sat, then become stationary from near 
the Windward Passage to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to 
strong winds and rough seas will follow behind this front. Strong 
high pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next 
week, increasing coverage of fresh to strong trade winds and 
building seas across the central and eastern basin. Pulsing gale 
conditions are possible at night near the coast of Colombia Sun 
night through Wed night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extdends from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida. A
second cold front extends from 31N75W to just S of Cape Canaveral.
Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas to 10 ft follow the second
front and is affecting the waters N of 29N. Ahead of the leading
front, winds are fresh to strong from the SW with seas to 9 ft N
of 29N. A 1027 mb high is ahead of the leading cold front and is
centered near 28N37W. The pressure gradient between a cold front
over NW Africa and the ridge is supprting fresh to strong NE winds
and rough seas over the NE Atlantic subtropical waters. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the leading cold front will move 
across the northern and central waters through late Sat, with 
fresh to strong winds on either side of the front. The second  
cold front is forecast to reach the far southern waters by late 
Sun and become stationary. Strong high pressure building in the 
wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and seas early 
next week. 

$$
Ramos