000 AXNT20 KNHC 191715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will continue moving across the Gulf waters through the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will reach gale-force speeds in the far west part of the central Gulf waters offshore Tampico tonight and offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Seas with these winds are forecast to build to 8-12 ft, with highest seas peaking on Sat night offshore Veracruz. These conditions will subside Sun as high pressure builds over the basin in the wake of the front. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W to 06N17W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02S41W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of both boundaries. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a Gale Warning. The cold front mentioned in the section above extends from 30N86W to 26N97W. A surface trough extends from 24N96W to 20N95W. Another trough is analyzed from 23N90W to 19N92W. Abundant cloud cover, the majority due to a very active subtropical jet stream branch that extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico, is noted over the vast majority of the Gulf. Patches of rain with embedded scattered showers are possible from 23N to 27N. Mostly gentle winds are over most of the basin, except for fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, except for 4-7 ft seas in the north-central and NW Gulf sections. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Straits of Florida to the Bay of Campeche by early Sat and southeast of the area by late Sat. Fresh to near gale winds and rough seas will follow behind the front. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the far west central Gulf near Tampico tonight and in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting fresh to strong southeast to south winds over most of the basin through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A typical trade-wind regime is supported across the basin by ridging over the western Atlantic. Strong to near-gale force northeast to east trade winds along with seas to 12 ft are found across the south-central part of the basin, while fresh trade winds are present in the eastern southwestern Caribbean areas along with seas in the waters with seas in the 6-9 ft range due to an east swell. Latest ASCAT data passes depict gentle to moderate trade winds in the northwestern Caribbean. Seas there are in the 3-5 ft range due to a southeast swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the south central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front will move into the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, then become stationary from near the Windward Passage to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow behind this front. Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next week, increasing coverage of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas across the central and eastern basin. Pulsing gale conditions are possible at night near the coast of Colombia Sun night through Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail end of a cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N75W to 26N79W. Scattered showers and fresh to strong winds are noted with this front. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N52W to 28N67W. A 1029 mb high pressure center that is analyzed near 28N37W. A cold front is analyzed E of the Canary Islands from 31N09W to 24N19W. A tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and the eastern Atlantic cold front supports fresh to strong north to northeast winds N of 20N and E of 24W. Seas with these winds are peaking to around 11 ft. In the deep tropics, fresh to strong trade winds are present S of 20N and east of the Lesser Antilles to near 25W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8-11 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere N of 20N, except for light to gentle winds are near the 1029 mb high. Seas are 5-8 ft N of 20N, with the exception near the cold front in the western part of the area where seas are 5-8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move across the northern and central waters through late Sat, with fresh to strong winds on either side of the front. Another cold front will move across the waters offshore northern Florida today. This front is forecast to reach the far southern waters by late Sun and become stationary. Strong high pressure building in the wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and seas early next week. $$ ERA