000 AXNT20 KNHC 191120 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force trade winds offshore northwestern Colombia will diminish to just below gale-force around 12Z this morning as the culprit tight gradient slackens some. Seas with these winds are 9-12 ft. Seas will only subside a little through this evening. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has recently entered the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will reach near gale-force speeds in the far west part of the central Gulf waters offshore Tampico tonight and offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Seas with these winds are forecast to build to 8-12 ft, with seas peaking slightly higher on Sat night to 13 ft offshore Veracruz. These conditions will subside Sun as high pressure builds over the basin in the wake of the front. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends southwestward to 04N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02N30W and to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-33W, within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 18W-23W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a gale warning. Weak high pressure of 1018 mb is centered in the eastern Gulf near Tampa, Florida. Meanwhile, a cold front is just inland the northern Gulf coast poised to move offshore. A trough extends from 26N94W to 23N95W and to the central Bay of Campeche. Another trough is along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Abundant cloud cover, the majority due to a very active subtropical jet stream branch that extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico, is noted over the vast majority of the Gulf. Patches of rain with embedded scattered showers are possible from 21N to 26N between 91W-97W and from 24N to 27N between 84W-91W. Patches of mostly dense fog are being observed along the immediate coastal areas of Texas. Mostly gentle winds are over the basin, except for fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, except for 4-7 ft seas in the north-central and NW Gulf sections. For the forecast, the weak high pressure of 1018 mb that is just west of Tamp will shift E of the basin early this morning as a strong cold front that is just inland the northern Gulf coast drops south into the far northern Gulf. The front will reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to Brownsville, Texas during the morning, from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf by early Fri evening, from the Straits of Florida to near the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat and to just southeast of the area by late Sat. Fresh to near gale winds and rough seas will follow in behind the front. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the far west central Gulf near Tampico tonight and in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Looking ahead into early next week, strong high pressure in the wake of the front will allow for fresh to strong southeast to south winds over most of the basin. These winds diminish Tue and Tue night as the high pressure weakens and shifts E. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A typical trade-wind regime is supported across the basin by ridging over the western Atlantic. Strong to near-gale force northeast to east trade winds along with rough seas to 10 ft are found across the central part of the basin, while fresh trade winds are present in the eastern southwestern Caribbean areas along with seas in the waters with seas in the 6-9 ft range due to an east swell. Overnight ASCAT data passes show gentle to moderate trade winds in the northwestern Caribbean. Seas there are in the 3-5 ft range due to a southeast swell. For the forecast, high pressure northeast of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through tonight. The high pressure will also cause fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sat night and become stationary from near the Windward Passage to near Jamaica and to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas are anticipated behind this front. Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next week, with the resultant tight gradient likely leading to fresh to strong trade winds and building seas across the central and eastern basin through early next week, with gale conditions possible near the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from near 31N50W to 27N46W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to South Florida. A recently formed stronger cold front is over the far western part. It extends from a 1011 mb low that is just offshore the North Carolina coast, south-southwestward to 31N79W and to near West Palm Beach Florida. An overnight ASCAT data pass revealed fresh to strong winds on either side of this front north of 27N between 75W-80W. In the far eastern Atlantic, the tail-end of a cold front extends from near 31N10W southwestward to 25N20W, then dissipating to 23N22W. In between this front and the first one mentioned above is a 1026 mb high pressure center that is analyzed near 28N42W. A tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and the eastern Atlantic cold front supports fresh to strong north to northeast winds north of about 15N and between 18W and a line from 31N26W to 15N39W. Seas with these winds are peaking to around 11 ft. In the deep tropics, fresh to strong trade winds are present south of 21N and east of the Lesser Antilles to near 25W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere south of 25N, while gentle winds are north of 24N, except for light and variable winds are near the 1026 mb high. Seas are 6-8 ft with the gentle to moderate trade winds and 4-6 ft north 24N, with the exception near the cold front in the western part of the area where seas are 5-8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front that extends from 31N50W to 27N64W will shift east this morning while weakening. The recently formed cold front over the western part of the area will sweep across the northern and central waters through late Sat, preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds. A strong cold front will move across the waters offshore northern Florida today. This front is forecast to reach the far southern waters by late Sun and become stationary. Strong high pressure building in behind this front will result in increasing winds and building seas north of about 27N into early next week. A tight gradient associated to the high pressure will allow for northeast to east winds to increase to fresh to strong speeds over the waters south of about 27N early next week. $$ Aguirre