000 AXNT20 KNHC 182323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Trade winds offshore northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale- force tonight through early Friday morning. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Winds should decrease below gale-force from late Friday morning through the afternoon, but seas will remain rough. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf on Friday morning and continue moving southward through late Friday night. NW to N winds behind this front are expected to reach gale-force across the west-central Gulf on Friday and southwestern Gulf Friday night and Saturday. Combined seas will build to between 8 and 11 ft during this period. Afterward, fresh to strong NE to SE winds and rough seas will persist through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, then reaches southwestward to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues southwestward from 06N14W to 02N30W to 01N49W. Scattered showers within 135 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming Gale Warning. A surface ridge extends southwestward from a high over the Florida Panhandle just W of the Florida Big Bend to the western basin near 94W. This surface ridge is supporting gentle to moderate SE to S winds and slight seas to 4 ft across the entire basin. For the forecast, surface ridging will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds for the entire Gulf through early Fri morning. Afterward, a cold front will sink southward across the northern Gulf, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to western Bay of Campeche by Fri morning, and from the Florida Straits to eastern Bay of Campeche by Fri afternoon. Fresh to near-gale winds and rough seas will follow behind the front. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are expected at the west-central and southwestern Gulf Fri night through Sat. For early next week, strong high pressure in the wake of the front should keep fresh to strong winds across the entire Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. A typical trade-wind regime is supported across the basin by ridging over the western Atlantic. Strong to near-gale NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft are found across the central part of the basin while fresh trades covers the E and SW Caribbean waters with seas in the 5-8 ft range. In the NW Caribbbean, trades are gentle to moderate with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure northeast of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri night. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. The high pressure will also cause fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front is forecast to reach the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sat night and then stalling from near the Windward Passage to southwest of Jamaica on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are anticipated behind this front. Strong high pressure east of this front is expected to bring fresh to strong winds and building seas across the central and eastern basin through early next week with gale conditions possible near the coast of Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N58W to 25N74W, then continues as a stationary front to western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along the cold front north of 30N between 57W and 62W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are found behind the frontal boundary to the east coast of Florida. Ahead of the front, a 1029 mb high pressure centered near 29N40W is supporting moderate or less anticyclonic flow and moderate to rough seas in mixed moderate swell north of 20N between 35W and the frontal boundary. Farther east, mid to upper-level troughing is enhancing scattered moderate convection along a weak cold front north of 22N between 17W and 26W. Mainly fresh N to NE winds and rough seas in large northerly swell persists north of 20N between 20W and 35W. For the remainder of the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas prevail between 25W and the Lesser Antilles/southwest Bahamas with strong winds observed in a recent scatterometer pass from 15N to 19N between 40W and 50W. For the forecast, by this evening, the entire portion of the cold front over the western Atlantic will become stationary and then begin to lift northward as a warm front ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the northeast Florida offshore waters on Fri. This second front will cause winds and seas to build once again north of 27N into early next week. High pressure building east of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands through Fri. $$ Ramos