000 AXNT20 KNHC 181148 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jan 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Trade winds offshore from northwestern Colombia will remain at gale-force until mid morning, then decrease to between strong and near-gale force. These winds are going to pulse back to gale- force once again tonight through early Friday morning. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Winds should decrease below gale-force from late Friday morning through the afternoon but seas will remain rough. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf on Friday morning and then sink southward through late Friday night. NW to N winds behind this front are expected to reach gale-force at the west-central Gulf on Friday, and southwestern Gulf Friday night and Saturday. Combined seas will build to between 8 and 11 ft during this period. Afterward, fresh to strong NE to SE winds and rough seas will persist through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Africa coast near the Sierra Leone-Liberia border, then reaches west-southwestward to 04N18W. An ITCZ continues from 04N18W through 03N30W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 02N42W. Widely scattered showers are seen south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 05N between the Liberia coast and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and up to 140 nm north of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming Gale Warning. A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 nm high near the Carolina coast across the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. A weak warm front drapes across the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf. Patchy showers are present near and up to 100 nm north of this boundary. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail across the entire Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds for the entire Gulf through early Fri morning. Afterward, a cold front will sink southward across the northern Gulf, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to western Bay of Campeche by late Fri morning, and from the Florida Straits to eastern Bay of Campeche by late Fri afternoon. Fresh to near-gale winds and rough seas will follow behind the front. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are expected at the west-central and southwestern Gulf Fri through Sat. For early next week, strong high pressure in the wake of the front should keep fresh to strong winds across the entire Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. The stationary front across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel earlier has lifted northwest of the area as a weak warm front this morning. Otherwise, a surface ridge over the western Atlantic along 26N continue to support a trade-wind pattern across the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered trade-wind showers are visible across the eastern basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near- gale ENE winds and seas of 11 to 13 ft are found at the south- central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident at the southwestern basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, high pressure northeast of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri night. The high pressure will also cause fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front is forecast to reach the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sat night and then stalling from near the Windward Passage to southwest of Jamaica on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are anticipated behind this front. Strong high pressure east of this front is expected to bring fresh to strong winds and building seas across the central and eastern basin through early next week with gale conditions possible near the coast of Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches southwestward from 31N60W to 26N73W, then continues westward as a weak warm front across the northwest Bahamas to the Great Bahama Bank. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 100 nm northwest of the cold front, while patchy showers are seen near and up to 100 nm north of the warm front. A mid to upper-level trough extends southwestward from near Madeira across the Canary Islands to just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Enhanced by this feature, scattered moderate convection is seen near a weak cold front from 21N to 25N between 20W and 28W. Convergent trade winds are triggering similar convection from 01N to 03N between 42W and 50W. Widely scattered trade-wind showers are evident farther north from 10N to 20N between 48W and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are found north of the cold/warm front between 60W and the Georgia- Florida coast. To the east, the Atlantic Ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swell north of 24N between 40W and the cold/warm front. At the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft in large northerly swell persist north of 20N between 25W and 40W. For the tropical Atlantic, fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and 8 to 9 ft seas prevail from 05N to 20N/24N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles/southwest Bahamas. For the forecast, as the warm front gradually lifts northward today, the cold front will move eastward and extend from 31N53W to near 27N65W late this afternoon. By this evening, the cold front will become stationary and then join the rest of the warm front lifting northward. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northeast Florida offshore waters on Fri. This second front will cause winds and seas to build once again north of 27N into early next week. High pressure building east of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands through Fri. $$ Chan