000 AXNT20 KNHC 172325 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong ridge along 25N and lower pressures in northern South America will continue to support strong NE trade winds in the south- central Caribbean Sea through early Fri, then diminishing to fresh to strong there Fri afternoon through the weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight, reaching speeds up to 40 kt from 11N to 12N between 74.5W and 75.5W. Seas to 14 ft are expected in the area tonight. Winds to near-gale force are expected Thu night offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues westward to 04N16.5W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16.5W to 02.5N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N and 30 nm S of the ITCZ between 24W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure ridging continues to build in across the Gulf of Mexico, interrupted by a surface trough that extends from the SW Gulf near 18.5N93W to the west-central Gulf near 26N96.5W. Over the western Bay of Campeche, to the west of the surface trough and south of 20N, NW winds are still fresh to strong. A 17/1630 UTC altimeter pass indicated that seas were still in the 12 to 13 ft range from 18.5N to 19N between 94.5W and 95W, but seas there have now likely subsided to 10 to 11 ft. Elsewhere across the southern Gulf of Mexico, south of a line from Tampa Bay to NE Mexico near 24N98W, winds are fresh with 6 to 8 ft seas, except for 8 to 10 ft south of 23N between 84.5W and 96W, including in the Yucatan Channel. North of a line extending from Tampa Bay to NE Mexico, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast, high pressure centered over southern Mississippi will move eastward towards the Carolinas by tonight. As a result, winds will veer to the E and SE tonight and Thu with improving marine conditions. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by late Thu, reaching from Apalachicola, FL to 26N90W to Brownsville, TX by Fri morning, and from the Straits of Florida to Merida, Mexico to 18N94W by Sat morning. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds are expected over the western Gulf, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere, behind the front Fri through Sat. Gale-force winds and building seas are expected over the SW Gulf off Tampico Fri evening and off Veracruz Fri night through Sat, in the wake of the front. Strong high pressure will follow the front, keeping fresh to strong wind speeds and rough seas over most of the Gulf waters through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning off NW Colombia. A stationary front extends across the NW Caribbean from western Cuba near 23N82W to Cozumel to Tulum, Mexico. Fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are likely occurring across the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere in the NW Caribbean to the SE of the front, moderate E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. In the eastern and central Caribbean, fresh trade winds prevail, except for strong to near-gale force in the south-central Caribbean from 11N to 16N between 69W and 78W. A recent satellite altimeter pass from 17/2000 UTC shows seas ranging from 8 to 10 ft from 10N to 16N between 76W and 79W. NOAA buoy 42058 located near 14.8N 75.1W recently measured a significant wave height of 10.5 ft at 17/2120 UTC. It is likely that seas of 8 to 11 ft extend from 10N to 17N between 68W and 81W. Elsewhere east of 81W and south of 18N, seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front over the NW Caribbean will dissipate late tonight. Strong high pressure ridging along 25N combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nighttime hours tonight. The next cold front is forecast to reach the NW Caribbean on Sat, reaching from the Windward Passage to the N coast of Honduras by late Sun. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front is expected to bring fresh to strong winds and building seas across most of the basin through Mon, with gale conditions possible near the coast of Colombia. Strong to near-gale force NE to ENE winds are expected in the Windward Passage in the lee of Cuba Sun evening through Mon morning, with strong winds covering the remainder of the NW Caribbean during that time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas near 24.5N76W, then continues SW as a stationary front to Havana, Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 150 nm SE of the front, mainly north of 28N and east of 70W. Fresh N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found to the NW of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are east of the front to 58W, mainly north of 29N. Fresh to locally strong E winds and seas 6 to 7 ft are likely occurring near the N coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Farther east, a 1030 mb high pressure centered near 33N43W extends ridging west-southwestward to 29N50W to 26N60W to 25N70W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are within a couple hundred nm of the ridge axis. A cold front extends from 31N23.5W to 24N38W, then continues W as a stationary front to 25N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25.5N between 23W and 31W. Fresh to strong N winds are NW of the cold front, mainly north of 25.5N between 25W and 36W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft cover the area north of 26N and east of 45W. Farther south, fresh trade winds and 7 to 9 ft seas cover the area from 05N to 22N between 30W and 62W. For the forecast, the cold front extending from Bermuda to Havana, Cuba will move eastward and extend from 31N58W to the central Bahamas on Thu morning. Later on Thu, it will become stationary and begin to lift northward ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the northeast Florida offshore waters on Fri. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida early Sat, from 31N57W to eastern Cuba early Sun, and from 31N48W to the N coast of Haiti early Mon. This front will cause winds and seas to build once again north of 26N Fri night through Sat night. Very strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic in the wake of this front will cause strong NE winds and rough seas across the area south of 26N to the Greater Antilles from Sun afternoon through early next week. $$ Hagen