000 AXNT20 KNHC 171141 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jan 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northeasterly trade winds off the coast of northwestern Colombia are going to pulse to gale-force until mid morning today, then tonight and possibly Thursday night. Seas in the strongest winds will peak between 11 and 14 ft. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Sierra Leone/Liberia border, then runs west-southwestward to 06N16W. An ITCZ continues from 06N16W through 03.5N30W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 0.5N43W. Widely scattered showers are seen up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ. There is no significant convection present near the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front reaches southwestward from the Florida Straits to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 80 nm northwest of this boundary. Convergent northerly winds farther behind the front are causing patchy showers across the east-central and south- central Gulf, and the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are present at the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist at the northwestern Gulf. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds and very rough seas will persist behind the aforementioned cold front across much of Gulf until mid morning, except the northeastern Gulf where gentle to moderate winds are evident. Starting mid morning, winds and seas at the central and northeastern Gulf will steadily improve. The front will exit the Gulf late this morning, which should allow winds and seas to gradually subside at the southeastern Gulf late this afternoon and evening. Afterward, the next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early Fri morning and move southward across the basin through late Fri night into Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas. Gale-force winds and rough seas are possible behind the front at the western Bay of Campeche Fri night and Sat afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. A surface ridge northeast of the Caribbean Sea near 25N continues to support trade winds across the entire basin. Convergent trades are producing widely scattered showers at the Gulf of Honduras and eastern basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale ENE to E winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are found at the south- central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas dominate the northwestern and west-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas prevail elsewhere of the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, tight gradient between the high pressure NE of the basin and Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale- force during the nighttime and early morning hours for early this morning and tonight, and possibly Thu night. Tight gradient will also cause fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from 31N69W across the northwest Bahamas to the Great Bahama Bank. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up near and up to 120 nm northwest of this front. A weaker cold front at the central Atlantic runs southwestward from a 1017 mb low at 31N35W to 23N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 100 nm southeast of this boundary. A surface trough curves southwestward from near the Canary Islands to 20N31W. Patchy showers are present near and up to 200 nm northwest of this feature. Convergent trade winds are generating widely scattered showers from 12N to 16N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong SW to NW winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are found north of 27N between 60W and the Georgia-northeast Florida coast. To the south, moderate to locally fresh E to SE to SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate from 20N to 27N between 50W and the Bahamas. At the central Atlantic north of 27N between 45W and 60W, gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft persist. Toward the eastern Atlantic between 35W and 45W, fresh to strong N to ENE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are evident north of 26N. While gentle to moderate with locally fresh N to ENE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are noted from 05N to 26N. For the tropical Atlantic, fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail from 05N to 20N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, the aforementioned first cold front will move eastward and extend from 31N65W to the central Bahamas and western Cuba this afternoon, then from 31N57W to the central Bahamas on Thu morning. It should finally become stationary and dissipate across the western Atlantic Thu afternoon into evening. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas behind this front north of 27N will shift eastward across the western Atlantic through early this evening. High pressure building east of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands through Fri. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to enter the northeast Florida offshore waters Fri evening and then tracks eastward this weekend. This will cause winds and seas to build once again near this front north of 27N. $$ Chan