000 AXNT20 KNHC 162234 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jan 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2210 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretches from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found near and up to 150 nm southeast of the front, mainly from the Yucatan Channel to 27N between 86W and the west coast of Florida. Strong to near-gale force N winds and very rough seas are occurring west of the front, with gale force NW to N winds likely occurring offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Recent buoy observations from portions of the west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico show seas of 11 to 13 ft, but it is possible that seas may currently be peaking in the 14 to 16 ft range from offshore of Tampico to offshore of Veracruz. Gales should end this evening as the front reaches from Ft. Myers, FL to Merida, Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually subside across the Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Wed. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight gradient between a strong surface ridge over the central Atlantic and the Colombian Low is causing strong to near-gale force ENE winds over the south-central Caribbean. The winds offshore northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale force during the nighttime hours tonight through Thu night. Seas will range from 12 to 14 ft under the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near 08N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 04N40W to 04N51W. Scattered showers are noted from 01N to 05N between 30W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning, as well as a description of features, convection, winds and waves along and west of the cold front. To the southeast of the cold front, winds are generally moderate with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the strong to gale force northerly winds and very rough seas behind the cold front across the west-central and southwestern Gulf will gradually subside tonight. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will prevail across the central and eastern Gulf through Wed morning. The front will exit the Gulf tonight into Wed morning. Afterward, the next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf late Thu and move southward across the basin through late Fri night into Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected over the western Bay of Campeche behind the front on Sat afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning off the NW coast of Colombia. Strong mid-level ridging across the Caribbean Sea is leading to mostly dry weather. The exception is near the Yucatan Channel ahead of a Gulf of Mexico cold front, where isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery. Fresh to strong trade winds are occurring across the eastern and central basin east of 80W and south of 18.5N, except for near-gale winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 7 to 11 ft in the central basin, highest near 12.5N77W. This analysis is supported by recent satellite altimeter and buoy data from the central Caribbean Sea. In the far SW Caribbean W of 80W, moderate ENE winds and 6-8 ft seas prevail. In the NW Caribbean W of 80W, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure NE of the basin combined with the Colombian low will support a continuation of fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through at least Thu night. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nighttime hours from tonight through Thu night. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel Wed morning, bringing fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 9 ft seas through Wed evening before diminishing. A second cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Sat, then reach from eastern Cuba to the N coast of Honduras Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are expected across the NW Caribbean behind the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N79W to Daytona Beach, FL. A squall line is analyzed ahead of the front from 31N76W to 28N78W to 27N80W as of 2100 UTC. Broken moderate convection with thunderstorms is noted within 60 nm either side of the analyzed squall line. Fresh to strong SW winds are along and east of the cold front to 70W, mainly north of 28N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in this area. Farther south, fresh to locally strong ESE trade winds extend off the N coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with 6 to 8 ft seas in the area. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are elsewhere over the W Atlantic, west of 65W. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N41W to 27N50W. Fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are NW of the front, mainly N of 29N and east of 49W. Farther south, fresh trade winds and 7 to 9 ft seas cover the area from 05N to 22N between 46W and 62W, and from 05N to 14N between 35W and 46W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft were confirmed by a recent 16/1830 UTC altimeter pass from 14N to 20N between 56W and 60W. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N15W to 26N23W. Fresh winds and seas of 11 ft of greater are confined to areas north of 29N between 14W and 26W. Ridging with gentle winds extends from 24N20W to 25N35W. W to NW swell is keeping seas in the 8 to 11 ft range from 22N to 29N between 14W and 29W. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 31N79W to Daytona Beach, FL will reach from 31N71W to the northwest Bahamas and western Cuba on Wed morning. The front will then extend from 31N57W to the central Bahamas on Thu morning before becoming nearly stationary. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas behind this front will shift eastward, to the north of 27N, through Wed. High pressure building E of the front will keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands most of the week. Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge off the Florida coast Fri and extend from 31N57W to the Windward Passage by early Sun. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are forecast to follow this front across the western Atlantic. $$ Hagen