084 AXNT20 KNHC 161711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretches from the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 150 nm northwest of the front. Strong to gale-force N winds and very rough seas are occurring behind this front across the northwestern Gulf and will shift southward into the far west-central and southwestern Gulf this afternoon and early evening. Seas will peak from 11 to 14 ft under the strongest winds. As this front pushes farther southeastward into the eastern Gulf tonight, both winds and seas across the western Gulf will steadily subside. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight gradient between a 1025 mb high over central Atlantic and the Colombian Low is causing fresh to strong easterly winds over the central basin. These winds off northwestern Colombia will frequently gust to gale-force until mid-morning. Seas will range from 12 to 15 ft under the strongest winds. Afterward, sustained winds at this same location are going to reach gale-force during the nighttime and early morning hours, tonight and Wednesday night and possibly Thursday night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone-Liberia border stretches westward to 06N17W. An ITCZ continues from 06N17W across 05N30W to 02N50W. No significant convection is occurring at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning. Other than the cold front and related weather mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present behind this front over the north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist ahead of the front in the eastern and south-central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. For the forecast, the frontal boundary will shift southward into the west-central and southwestern Gulf this afternoon and evening before gradually subsiding tonight. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will reach the central Gulf this afternoon and eastern Gulf by early Wed morning. The front will exit the Gulf tonight into Wed morning. Afterward, the next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf late Thu and move southward across the basin through late Fri night into Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected over the Bay of Campeche behind the front on Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning. A 1025 mb high near 28N58W is sustaining a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to locally strong E winds and seas at 7 to 14 ft are evident for the north-central and eastern basins. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, high pressure NE of the basin combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nighttime and early morning hours for tonight and Wed night, and possibly Thu night. The same high will also cause fresh to locally strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the SE coast, approaching the offshore waters. Scattered thunderstorms are noted offshore NE Florida. Ahead of the boundary, a recent scatterometer pass revealed fresh southerly winds north of 24N between 71W and the U.S. coast. A 1025 mb high pressure center located near 28N56W extends a ridge towards the Greater Antilles. The tightened pressure gradient supports fresh easterlies south of 23N between 45W and 70W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are also noted south of 15N and west of 35W to the Lesser Antilles. A weak cold front extends from 31N44W to 29N53W. Moderate westerly winds follow the boundary with 6 to 8 ft seas. Another weak cold front is located farther east, extending from 31N20W to 27N23W. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 9 to 12 ft seas continue behind this front. Across the remainder of the central Atlantic north of 15N, winds are moderate speeds or less, with northerly swell of 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere over the eastern Atlantic winds are moderate speeds or less with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will exit off the Florida northeast coast this morning and reach from 31N71W to the northwest Bahamas and western Cuba on Wed morning. The front will then extend from 31N56W to the central Bahamas on Thu morning then becoming nearly stationary. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas behind this front will shift eastward across 27N through Wed. High pressure building E of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands most of this week. $$ Mora